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Tropical Storm Fred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2021-08-16 22:45:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 162045 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 2100 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X 17(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST MARKS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) APALACHICOLA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) APALACHICOLA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 850W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 850W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 50 17 X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) COLUMBUS GA 34 8 10(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Advisory Number 29
2021-08-16 22:44:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 162044 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 2100 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE IS DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COAST OF FLORIDA FROM INDIAN PASS TO YANKEETOWN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND FROM THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 85.3W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 100SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 75SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 85.3W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 85.4W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.5N 85.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 34.0N 84.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 37.0N 82.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 39.5N 80.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 85.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Fred Update Statement
2021-08-16 21:13:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT61 KNHC 161913 TCUAT1 Tropical Storm Fred Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 215 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 ...FRED MAKES LANDFALL IN THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... National Weather Service WSR-88D radar data indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Fred has made landfall near Cape San Blas, Florida. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 65 mph (100 km/h). SUMMARY OF 215 PM CDT...1915 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 85.4W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES $$ Forecaster Pasch/Hagen
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Summary for Tropical Storm Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-16 21:13:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FRED MAKES LANDFALL IN THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... As of 2:15 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 the center of Fred was located near 29.7, -85.4 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Fred Public Advisory Number 28A
2021-08-16 19:48:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 161747 CCA TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 28A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 100 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Corrected latitude in summary block. ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND FLOODING RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND REGION AS FRED APPROACHES THE COAST... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 85.5W ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend from Navarre to the Steinhatchee River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 85.5 West. Fred is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Fred should make landfall in the eastern Florida Panhandle this afternoon or early this evening, and move over western Georgia on Tuesday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall. After landfall, Fred is expected to quickly weaken. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A wind gust of 58 mph (93 km/h) was recently reported at Bald Point, Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is 994 mb (29.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through Monday... Southern and Central Florida... 1 to 2 inches of additional rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches are expected. Through Tuesday... The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected. Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas... 4 to 7 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 10 inches are expected. Through Wednesday... Portions of the Mid-Atlantic States... 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts with a nearby front. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts. An increased risk of landslides exists across the mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge Escarpment on Tuesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3-5 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the Tropical Storm warning area. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are affecting the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, and could causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across parts of the Florida Panhandle, southwest Georgia, and southeast Alabama. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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