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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-09-30 04:46:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 300246 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0300 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 26.7W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 105SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 26.7W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 26.2W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 8.9N 28.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 9.7N 30.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 10.6N 32.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.8N 33.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.4N 35.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.5N 36.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 20.5N 39.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 26.0N 41.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 8.4N 26.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-09-29 22:43:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM CVT Wed Sep 29 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 292043 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 800 PM CVT Wed Sep 29 2021 The cloud pattern continues to exhibit a large circulation with numerous curved bands surrounding the center. The strongest thunderstorms remain on the system's west side. The latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have both increased to 2.5/35 kt, and on that basis, the cyclone has been upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm. Victor is still on a west-northwest course at about 11 kt. There has been little change to the track forecast reasoning. The cyclone is expected to continue west-northwestward during the next couple of days as it remains steered by the flow on the south side of a deep-layer ridge. By late Friday, however, the models show the western periphery of the ridge being eroded due to a mid- to upper-level low over the subtropical central Atlantic. As a result, the cyclone should turn northwestward by Friday night and then northward late this weekend or early next week. There remains a fair amount of spread in the timing and location of the northward turn with the GFS and HWRF still on the right side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF showing the slowest and westernmost solution. Overall, the consensus models have not changed much and neither has the official track forecast. The storm is expected to remain in conducive environmental conditions for strengthening during the next couple of days. During that time period, Victor is forecast to move over 28-29 deg C waters while embedded within a moist airmass with very low wind shear (less than 10 kt). Rapid intensification sometimes occurs when conditions are this favorable, however, since the storm is broad and does not yet have an inner core, gradual strengthening seems more reasonable. The NHC forecast brings Victor to hurricane intensity in 36 hours. In a few days, however, the models show a pronounced increase in southwesterly shear and a notably drier atmosphere. These unfavorable conditions should end the opportunity for strengthening and promote a weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and remains near a blend of the HCCA, IVCN, and IVDR consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 8.3N 25.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 8.8N 26.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 9.5N 28.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 10.3N 30.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 11.4N 32.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 12.8N 34.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 14.7N 35.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 19.3N 38.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 24.9N 40.9W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Victor (AT5/AL202021)
2021-09-29 22:43:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...VICTOR FORMS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 8:00 PM CVT Wed Sep 29 the center of Victor was located near 8.3, -25.5 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Victor Public Advisory Number 2
2021-09-29 22:43:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM CVT Wed Sep 29 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 292043 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 800 PM CVT Wed Sep 29 2021 ...VICTOR FORMS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...8.3N 25.5W ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM S OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM CVT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 8.3 North, longitude 25.5 West. Victor is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Victor is expected to become a hurricane in a day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM CVT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Victor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-09-29 22:43:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 29 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 292043 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 2100 UTC WED SEP 29 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 8.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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