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Subtropical Storm Ana Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-05-22 22:35:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT MAY 22 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 222035 TCMAT1 SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012021 2100 UTC SAT MAY 22 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OF WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 62.4W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 240SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 62.4W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 62.6W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 34.9N 61.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 36.2N 59.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 38.3N 54.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.5N 62.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Subtropical Storm Ana Graphics
2021-05-22 16:48:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 22 May 2021 14:48:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 22 May 2021 14:48:47 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Ana Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-05-22 16:38:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat May 22 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 221438 TCDAT1 Subtropical Storm Ana Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021 1100 AM AST Sat May 22 2021 Satellite imagery and radar data from Bermuda indicate that the central convection associated with Ana has changed little in organization during the past several hours, with a complex of small bands near the center at this time. The initial intensity will be held at 40 kt based on the latest intensity estimate from TAFB, although recently-received ASCAT data suggests this could be a little generous. Although the cyclone has some characteristics of a tropical cyclone, Ana remains a subtropical storm based on its position near the center of a large upper-level low pressure system and the current lack of anticyclonic upper-level outflow. The initial motion is 270/3. Ana and the large low it is embedded in are expected to turn northward later today as a developing mid-latitude cyclone over eastern Canada and the New England states erodes the subtropical ridge west of Ana. After that, the storm is expected to turn northeastward on the southeast side of the mid-latitude cyclone. The track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the new track forecast is similar to, but a little slower than, the various consensus models. Little change in strength is expected for the next 12 h or so. After Ana recurves, a combination of increasing shear, dry air, and decreasing SSTs should cause the storm to gradually weaken tonight and Sunday. The large-scale models agree upon Ana opening up into a trough of low pressure in 36-48 h, and the official forecast shows this happening just after 48 h. The remnant trough will likely be absorbed by a cold front associated with the mid-latitude cyclone shortly thereafter. The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 34.3N 63.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 34.8N 62.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 35.8N 61.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 37.2N 57.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 39.7N 52.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Subtropical Storm Ana (AT1/AL012021)
2021-05-22 16:38:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ANA NOW MOVING WESTWARD WHILE NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat May 22 the center of Ana was located near 34.3, -63.0 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Ana Public Advisory Number 2
2021-05-22 16:38:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat May 22 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 221438 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Ana Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012021 1100 AM AST Sat May 22 2021 ...ANA NOW MOVING WESTWARD WHILE NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.3N 63.0W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches of warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ana was located near latitude 34.3 North, longitude 63.0 West. The storm is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the north at a slow forward speed is expected later today, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, but gradual weakening is expected tonight and Sunday. Ana is expected to dissipate in a couple of days. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) mainly to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Locally gusty winds are possible on Bermuda today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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