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Subtropical Depression Four Graphics
2020-06-23 16:53:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 23 Jun 2020 14:53:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 23 Jun 2020 15:24:38 GMT
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Subtropical Depression Four Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-06-23 16:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 231450 TCDAT4 Subtropical Depression Four Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 1100 AM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 GOES-16 visible satellite imagery shows that the depression's circulation has become better defined since yesterday, and the center is exposed just to the north of a band of convection mainly located within the southern semicircle. This convection is aligned along the Gulf Stream current, where instability is greatest, and the system appears a little more tropical than yesterday. However, the depression is still collocated with an upper-level low, and it will therefore retain the subtropical designation. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on a ST1.5/25-30 kt classification from TAFB. A partial 1323 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass showed winds near 30 kt to the southeast of the center, and we'll continue to monitor additional scatterometer data to see if there are winds any higher than that. The initial motion is still 11 kt, but the heading has turned east-northeastward at 65 degrees. The depression is forecast to turn back toward the northeast by this evening and begin accelerating on Wednesday within the prevailing mid-latitude flow. This track will take the system over increasingly colder water, placing it over sea surface temperatures less than 20 degrees Celsius by early Wednesday. Those ocean temperatures will make it difficult to support deep convection, and the updated NHC forecast now calls for the system to degenerate to a remnant low in 24 hours. Dissipation has been moved to 48 hours, although global model fields indicate that the system could open up into a trough by 36 hours before it moves past Newfoundland. The Ocean Prediction Center has provided 12-ft sea radii in the southern semicircle based on recent AltiKa and Jason-3 altimeter data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 39.5N 62.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 40.6N 60.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 42.3N 58.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/0000Z 44.2N 55.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Subtropical Depression Four (AT4/AL042020)
2020-06-23 16:50:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION HEADING FOR COLDER WATERS... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Jun 23 the center of Four was located near 39.5, -62.1 with movement ENE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Subtropical Depression Four Public Advisory Number 4
2020-06-23 16:50:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 231450 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Subtropical Depression Four Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020 1100 AM AST Tue Jun 23 2020 ...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION HEADING FOR COLDER WATERS... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.5N 62.1W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression Four was located near latitude 39.5 North, longitude 62.1 West. The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two, but the depression is expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Wednesday and dissipate by early Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Subtropical Depression Four Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-06-23 16:50:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 23 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 231450 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042020 1500 UTC TUE JUN 23 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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