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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-12 07:29:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 120529 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Sep 12 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche and southern Gulf of Mexico have been increasing during the past several hours near and east of a surface trough of low pressure. A tropical depression is expected to form later today or tonight while the system moves northwestward and then northward near the coast of northeastern Mexico. Additional development is possible through the middle of next week if the system remains over water, and interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this morning, and potential tropical cyclone advisories could be initiated later today. Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to produce heavy rain across portions of southern Mexico today, including the western Yucatan Peninsula, which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides. By late today, heavy rain is expected to reach portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts with a heavy rain threat continuing across those coasts through the middle of the week. Localized significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of flash, urban, and isolated river flooding. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are becoming less conducive for development, and the chances of tropical depression formation are decreasing while the system moves westward over the far eastern Atlantic. By the middle of the week, stronger upper-level winds and marginally warm ocean temperatures are expected to limit additional development. This disturbance could bring locally heavy rain across the Cabo Verde Islands today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic several hundred miles northeast of the Azores. This system is forecast to move south-southeastward towards warmer waters, which could allow the low to gradually acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics by the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Another tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in a couple of days. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week while it moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to form north of the southeastern Bahamas in a few days resulting from the northern end of a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of the week several hundred miles southeast of the Carolinas while it moves northwestward across the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-12 02:06:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 120005 CCA TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021 Corrected to change the order of the system northeast of the Azores. For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A tropical wave and an upper-level trough continue to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of southeastern Mexico and the southern and central Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday while the disturbance moves northwestward and then northward near the coast of northeastern Mexico. Additional development will be possible through the middle of next week if the system remains over water, and interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow, if necessary. Regardless of development, this disturbance will continue to produce heavy rain across portions of southern Mexico, including the western Yucatan Peninsula, through tonight which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides. By late Sunday, heavy rain is expected to reach portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts with a heavy rain threat then continuing across those coasts through the middle of next week. Localized significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of flash, urban, and isolated river flooding. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Showers and thunderstorms remain poorly organized in association with a tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are currently conducive for development, and a tropical depression could still form this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward over the far eastern Atlantic. By the middle of next week, stronger upper-level winds and marginally warm ocean temperatures are expected to limit additional development. Regardless of development, this disturbance is likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain across the Cabo Verde Islands tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A non-tropical area of low pressure is located over the far northeastern Atlantic several hundred miles northeast of the Azores. This system is forecast to move south-southeastward towards warmer waters, which could allow the low to gradually acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics by the middle of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Another tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in a few days. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could from by the middle of next week while it moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to form near the southeastern Bahamas in a few days resulting from moisture by a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves northwestward across the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-11 19:33:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 111733 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Larry, located over the Labrador Sea. A tropical wave and an upper-level trough continue to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of southeastern Mexico and the southern and central Gulf of Mexico. Although upper-level winds are not conducive for development currently, they are expected to become more favorable for the system during the next day or so. A tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday while the disturbance moves northwestward and then northward near the coast of northeastern Mexico. Further development will be possible through the middle of next week if it remains over water, and interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rain across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula through today which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides. By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely reach portions of the western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas and Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant rainfall amounts will be possible, potentially resulting in areas of flash and urban flooding. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Showers and thunderstorms have not become any better organized in association with a tropical wave located just southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward over the far eastern Atlantic. Regardless of development, this disturbance is likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain across the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Another tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in a few days. Some development of this system will be possible through the middle of next week while it moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. An area of low pressure is expected to form near the southeastern Bahamas in a few days. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves northwestward across the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-11 13:35:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 111134 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Larry, located over the Labrador Sea. A tropical wave and an upper-level trough are producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of Central America, southeastern Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico. Although upper-level winds are not conducive for development currently, they are expected to become more favorable for the system during the next day or so. A tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday while the disturbance moves northwestward and then northward near the coast of northeastern Mexico. Further development will be possible through the middle of next week if it remains over water, and interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rain across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula through today which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides. By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely reach portions of the western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas and Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant rainfall amounts will be possible, potentially resulting in areas of flash and urban flooding. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A tropical wave continues to produce a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms just southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward over the far eastern Atlantic. Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain across the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Another tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in a few days. Some development of this system will be possible through the middle of next week while it moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-11 07:54:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 110554 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Sep 11 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Larry, located over Newfoundland, Canada. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over portions of Central America, southeastern Mexico, and the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough. Upper-level winds over the western Gulf of Mexico are expected to become more conducive for development over the weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday while the system moves northwestward and then northward near the coast of northeastern Mexico. Further development of this system will be possible through the middle of next week if it remains over water, and interests along the western and northwestern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rain across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula today, which may lead to flash flooding and mudslides. By late this weekend, heavy rain will likely reach portions of the western Gulf coast, including coastal Texas and Louisiana through the middle of next week. Localized significant rainfall amounts will be possible, resulting in limited flash and urban flooding. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A tropical wave is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms between Senegal and the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves generally westward over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Another tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa early next week. Some development of this system will be possible through the middle of next week while it moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
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