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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-26 19:17:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 261716 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Nine, located a couple of hundred miles southeast of the Cayman Islands. An elongated area of low pressure located over the central Atlantic about 600 miles east of Bermuda continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend. The system is expected to move slowly eastward during the next day or two, but a faster northeastward motion is forecast to begin on Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A tropical wave located over the tropical Atlantic about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend while the system moves toward the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to turn northward early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-26 13:51:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 261151 CCA TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 Corrected 5-day formation probability for the second system For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located over the west-central Caribbean Sea about 150 miles south-southwest of Jamaica. Environmental conditions remain conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form later today or tonight while the system moves northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, reaching the Cayman Islands tonight and western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel Friday and Friday night. Given the recent developmental trends, Tropical Storm Warnings for the Cayman Islands and western Cuba could be required later this morning, and an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and flooding are possible over portions of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands today and tonight, and will likely spread across Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. The system is expected to enter into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night and continue moving northwestward toward the central or northwestern U.S. Gulf coast, potentially bringing dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle by Sunday and Monday. However, uncertainty in the system's exact track and intensity remains large since the low is just beginning to form. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A trough of low pressure located over the central Atlantic about 600 miles east of Bermuda continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system moves slowly eastward at 5 to 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear a little more conducive for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form by the weekend while the system moves toward the west-northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Upper-level winds could become less conducive for development by early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-26 11:02:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 260902 TWOAT Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 505 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of the system south of Jamaica. Updated: Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better organized in association with a trough of low pressure located less than 200 miles south of Jamaica. Environmental conditions remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression or storm is expected to form later today or tomorrow. This system is forecast to move northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea near the Cayman Islands tonight, near Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Given the recent developmental trends, Tropical Storm Warnings for the Cayman Islands and Tropical Storm Watches for western Cuba could be required later today. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible over portions of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands today and tonight, and will likely spread across Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. In addition, this system could bring dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas late this weekend and early next week. However, uncertainty remains large since the system has yet to form. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 650 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system moves slowly northeastward over the central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-26 07:37:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 260537 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually becoming better organized in association with a trough of low pressure located a couple hundred miles south of Jamaica. While recent satellite wind data indicate that the system does not yet have a well-defined circulation, environmental conditions remain conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to form later today or tomorrow. The system is forecast to move northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea later today, near Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible through the weekend in portions of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba. In addition, this system could bring dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas late this weekend and early next week. However, uncertainty remains large since the system has yet to form. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 650 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system moves slowly northeastward over the central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-26 02:20:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 260019 CCA TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021 Corrected 48-h formation chance to 60 percent in first paragraph For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean Sea during the next day or so from a tropical wave currently located north of Colombia. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form late this week or over the weekend. The system is expected to move northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and near or across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Friday and into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, where conditions are expected to be favorable for additional development. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible through the weekend in portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula. In addition, this system could bring dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas late this weekend and early next week. However, uncertainty remains large since the system has yet to form. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Thursday afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 650 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Only slow development of this system is expected during the next day or so due to unfavorable upper-level winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system turns eastward over the central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
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