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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-25 19:58:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 251758 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so from a tropical wave currently located north of Colombia. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form late this week or over the weekend. The system is expected to move northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and near or across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Friday and into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend where conditions are expected to be favorable for additional development. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible through the weekend in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula. In addition, this system could bring dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Louisiana, Texas, and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas late this weekend and early next week. However, uncertainty remains large since the system has yet to form. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Thursday afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 700 miles southeast of Bermuda. Only slow development of this system is expected during the next day or so due to unfavorable upper-level winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system turns eastward over the open central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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atlantic
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tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-25 13:38:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 251138 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so from a tropical wave currently located over northwestern Colombia and the south-central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is expected to move near or across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday, and move into the western Gulf of Mexico by Sunday where conditions could be favorable for additional development to occur. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 800 miles southeast of Bermuda. Only slow development of this system is expected during the next day or so due to unfavorable upper-level winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system turns eastward over the central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-25 07:47:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 250547 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Wed Aug 25 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean Sea in a couple of days from a tropical wave currently located over the central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system moves northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, near or across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and into the western Gulf of Mexico by Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 1000 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Only slow development of this system is expected during the next day or so due to unfavorable upper-level winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system turns eastward over the central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-25 01:32:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 242332 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days from a tropical wave currently located over the central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of the low if it remains over water, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the system moves northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic about 1000 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Little development of this system is expected during the next day or two due to unfavorable upper-level winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week while the system turns eastward over the central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-24 19:42:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 241742 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days from a tropical wave currently located over the central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of the low if it remains over water, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the system moves northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A broad trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic almost 1000 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Little development of this system is expected during the next day or two due while it moves northwestward at about 15 mph over marginally conducive ocean temperatures and is affected by strong upper-level winds. Afterwards, environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week while the system turns eastward over the central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Another tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development by the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
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