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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2016-09-11 07:37:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 110537 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms have become a little more concentrated in association with a low pressure system located about 975 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or Monday while this disturbance moves northwestward to north- northwestward over the central Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with an area of disturbed weather located near the southeastern Bahamas have diminished. There are no signs of a surface circulation associated with this system, and conditions are not conducive for development of this disturbance while it moves generally west-northwestward at around 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent A weak area of low pressure located over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico continues to remain devoid of thunderstorm activity. Upper-level winds are not favorable, and development of this system is not expected. The low is forecast to weaken while it moves westward to west-southwestward at 5 to 10 mph into the central Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2016-09-11 01:25:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 102325 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is moving slowly northwestward. Satellite imagery indicates that the circulation has become better defined today, but the associated thunderstorm has not become any better organized in the past few hours. Conditions are still favorable for a tropical depression to form by during the next day or two while this disturbance moves toward the northwest over the central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located north of Hispaniola remains disorganized. There are no signs of a surface circulation, and conditions are not expected to be conducive for significant development of this system while it moves generally west- northwestward at around 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent A weak area of low pressure located over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico remains devoid of thunderstorm activity. Upper-level winds are not favorable for development, and the low is forecast to weaken while it moves westward to west-southwestward at 5 to 10 mph into the central Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent $$ Forecaster Brennan

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 
 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2016-09-10 19:29:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 101729 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure located a little more than 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has been moving slowly toward the west-northwest. The circulation appears to be better defined today, but the thunderstorm activity near the center remains poorly organized. Conditions are still very favorable for a tropical depression to form by Sunday or Monday while this disturbance moves toward the west-northwest or northwest over the central Atlantic during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola remains disorganized. There are no signs of a surface circulation, and conditions are not expected to be conducive for significant development of this system while it moves generally west-northwestward at around 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent An area of low pressure located over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico is devoid of thunderstorm activity. Upper-level winds are not favorable for development, and the low is forecast to weaken further while it moves westward across the central Gulf of Mexico at 5 to 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent $$ Forecaster Avila

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2016-09-10 13:36:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 101136 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is located a little more than 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Although the shower activity associated with the system has not become any better organized since yesterday, conditions are favorable for a tropical depression to form by early next week while this disturbance moves toward the west-northwest and then toward the northwest over the central Atlantic during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for significant development of this system while it moves generally west-northwestward at around 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent Satellite and radar data indicate that the weak area of low pressure located over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing limited shower activity. Upper-level winds are not favorable for development, and the low is forecast to weaken while it moves westward at 5 to 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent $$ Forecaster Avila

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2016-09-10 07:09:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 100509 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in organization during the past few hours in association with a broad area of low pressure located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. However, environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week while this disturbance moves toward the west-northwest and then toward the northwest over the central Atlantic during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent An area of cloudiness, showers, and thunderstorms extending for several hundred miles to the north of Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands is not showing any signs of organization. Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for significant development of this system while it moves generally west-northwestward at around 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent An area of low pressure located just southwest of the lower Florida Keys is currently producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for significant development while this system moves westward at 5 to 10 mph across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Brennan

Tags: weather atlantic outlook tropical

 

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