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Tropical Storm Teddy Public Advisory Number 12

2020-09-15 16:34:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 151433 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Teddy Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 ...TEDDY WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 47.0W ABOUT 960 MI...1545 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 47.0 West. Teddy is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A steady northwest motion at 10 to 15 mph is expected through the end of the week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast for the next several days. Teddy will likely become a hurricane later today or tonight and could reach major hurricane strength in a few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Storm Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

2020-09-15 16:34:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 151433 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Storm Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 12

2020-09-15 16:33:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 151433 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 47.0W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......140NE 60SE 40SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 47.0W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 46.6W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 14.9N 48.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 50SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.1N 49.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 70SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.4N 50.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.9N 52.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.3N 53.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.5N 55.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 24.0N 57.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 27.1N 60.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 47.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Storm Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 11

2020-09-15 10:57:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 150857 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Teddy Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 The tropical storm appears to have gotten better organized overnight, with deeper convection near the center and an increase in banding features. The initial wind speed is nudged upward to 50 kt, a little lower than the subjective Dvorak estimates alone would indicate since they have been running a little hot for this storm. While there are no signs of a true inner core yet, the shear is quite low at present, and Teddy should have several days in a low or moderate shear environment over warm waters to strengthen. Thus, the new forecast is raised from the previous one and is closest to a blend of the Florida State Superensemble and the NOAA corrected- consensus guidance. Teddy bears watching in the long range for category 4 strength, but regardless of the details, all of the guidance show it becoming a classical large and powerful September hurricane. The storm has turned west-northwestward tonight, or 295/10 kt. Teddy remains in a well-defined steering current for the next several days on the southwestern edge of the central Atlantic ridge, causing a west-northwest to northwest track through the end of the forecast. While the guidance is in very good agreement, there's been a rightward shift of almost all the aids, perhaps due to more upper-level westerly flow than the last cycle. The NHC track forecast is shifted eastward but lies on the western side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 13.7N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 14.4N 47.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 15.6N 48.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 16.8N 50.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 18.2N 51.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 19.7N 52.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 21.0N 54.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 23.5N 56.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 26.5N 59.5W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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