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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 15

2020-09-16 08:45:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 300 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 160645 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Special Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 300 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 ...TEDDY RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A 90-MPH HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 300 AM AST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 48.7W ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM AST (0700 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 48.7 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue into the weekend and remain well northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy could become a major hurricane later today or Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America today should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

2020-09-16 08:45:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0700 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 160645 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0700 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 AT 0700Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 15

2020-09-16 08:43:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0700 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 160643 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0700 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 48.7W AT 16/0700Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......140NE 80SE 40SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 48.7W AT 16/0700Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 48.0W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 49.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 50SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.3N 50.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 70SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.8N 52.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.2N 53.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 125 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.6N 54.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.0N 56.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 26.5N 60.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 29.5N 62.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 48.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)

2020-09-16 08:11:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...TEDDY RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A 90-MPH HURRICANE... As of 3:00 AM AST Wed Sep 16 the center of Teddy was located near 15.5, -48.7 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

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