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Tropical Storm BONNIE Graphics
2016-05-29 01:43:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 May 2016 23:43:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 May 2016 21:03:33 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm BONNIE (AT2/AL022016)
2016-05-29 01:43:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BONNIE HESITATES WHILE RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA... As of 8:00 PM EDT Sat May 28 the center of BONNIE was located near 30.9, -79.4 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm BONNIE Public Advisory Number 5A
2016-05-29 01:43:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 282342 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BONNIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 800 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 CORRECTED CENTRAL PRESSURE IN SUMMARY SECTION ...BONNIE HESITATES WHILE RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.9N 79.4W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF BEAUFORT SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Savannah River to Little River Inlet South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 79.4 West. Bonnie has moved little during the past few hours, but a northwest motion near 9 mph (15 km/h) is expected to resume this evening. A decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north-northwest are expected on Sunday as the system nears the coast within the warning area. A slow northward to northeastward motion of the center across coastal South Carolina is expected Sunday night and Monday. Data from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. A little strengthening is possible tonight, with gradual weakening forecast on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km), mainly to the northwest of the center. The latest minimum central pressure estimated by the aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area tonight or early Sunday. RAINFALL: Bonnie is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with maximum totals of 5 inches from eastern South Carolina through southeastern North Carolina. STORM SURGE: Storm surge inundation of 1 to 2 feet above ground level is possible within the tropical storm warning area during the next high tide on Sunday morning. SURF: Bonnie is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along portions of the southeastern United States coast through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two will be possible late tonight and early Sunday over the immediate coastal region from central South Carolina through southern North Carolina. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm BONNIE Graphics
2016-05-28 23:06:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 May 2016 20:31:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 May 2016 21:03:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm BONNIE Forecast Discussion Number 5
2016-05-28 22:41:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 282041 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 500 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 A 1431Z ASCAT-B overpass indicated two 34-kt wind vectors existed in the northwest quadrant of the tropical cyclone in a region of deep convection that was not sampled during the earlier reconnaissance mission. Convection briefly weakened, but has redeveloped and persisted in that same part of the storm circulation for the past 5 hours. Furthermore, NOAA Doppler velocity radar data from Charleston and Jacksonville have indicated winds ranging from 50-55 kt between 15,000 and 20,000 feet in the same area of the 34-kt ASCAT wind vectors. Based on these data, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Bonnie. The initial motion estimate is 320/09 kt. The exposed low-level center near the southeastern edge of the deep convective cloud canopy has been easy to track over the past several hours, and has essentially been moving along the previous forecast track. The NHC model guidance remains in good agreement on Bonnie gradually turning toward the north-northwest as it moves around the west side of a deep-layer ridge, and moving onshore between Charleston and Beaufort, South Carolina, in about 18-24 hours. After landfall a mid-level shortwave trough moving northeastward out of the Mississippi Valley region is expected to significantly weaken the ridge, causing the steering to collapse. The result is that Bonnie is forecast to stall or meander along the coastal region of South Carolina in 24-36 hours before drifting off to the east or northeast by 48 hours. The NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and closely follows a blend of GFS and ECMWF models. Bonnie is currently moving over the axis of warmest Gulf Stream sea-surface temperatures of 27-28 deg C. Although slightly cooler shelf water lies ahead of the cyclone, those ocean conditions do not appear to be sufficient to significantly weaken Bonnie based on rather vigorous convection that has developed just offshore of South Carolina today. However, southerly vertical wind shear of at least 20 kt is expected to prevent any rapid or significant intensification before landfall. After 24 hours, land interaction and the aforementioned wind shear should induce slow weakening, although there could be some convective rain bands over water producing wind gusts to tropical-storm force until about 48 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and follows the Decay-SHIPS model. The primary impact from Bonnie is expected to be locally heavy rainfall. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 31.1N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 31.9N 80.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 32.8N 80.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/0600Z 33.2N 80.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 30/1800Z 33.5N 79.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 31/1800Z 34.5N 77.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 01/1800Z 35.0N 76.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1800Z 35.7N 75.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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