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Hurricane Delta Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-10-09 16:48:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 796 WTNT41 KNHC 091448 TCDAT1 Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Delta has weakened a little since the last advisory. The central pressure has risen to 962 mb, and the strongest 700-mb flight-level winds reported by the NOAA plane were 107 kt. In addition, SFMR wind estimates have been in the 85-95 kt range. Based on these data, the initial intensity is lowered to 100 kt. Delta is moving northward or 360/11 kt between a deep-layer ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough over the U.S. Southern Plains. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected during the next few hours, and the center is forecast to cross the southwestern coast of Louisiana late this afternoon or this evening. After landfall, a continued north-northeastward motion should bring the center across central and northeastern Louisiana by the 24 h point. Thereafter, Delta is expected to move generally northeastward through the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys until it dissipates. The track forecast guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is little changed from the previous forecast. Increasing vertical shear and decreasing oceanic heat content along the forecast track should cause Delta to continue to weaken before landfall. However, there will still be significant impacts from winds and storm surge (see Key Messages below). After landfall, rapid weakening is anticipated, with Delta expected to weaken to a tropical storm tonight and to a tropical depression by Saturday afternoon or evening. The cyclone is forecast to dissipate between 60-72 h based on the consensus of the global models. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected near and east of where Delta makes landfall this evening, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect from High Island, Texas, to the Mouth of the Pearl River. The highest inundation of 7 to 11 feet is expected somewhere between Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge and Morgan City, Louisiana. Water levels in this area will rise quickly this afternoon and evening as Delta approaches and efforts to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Hurricane-force winds are expected this afternoon and evening within portions of the Hurricane Warning area, especially along the coast of southwest Louisiana. Hurricane force winds will also spread inland across portions of southern Louisiana near the path of Deltas center this evening and tonight. 3. Heavy rainfall will lead to significant flash flooding and minor to major river flooding in parts of Louisiana today and Saturday. Additional flooding is expected across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 28.0N 93.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 30.0N 93.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 24H 10/1200Z 32.2N 91.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/0000Z 33.7N 90.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/1200Z 35.0N 88.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/0000Z 36.7N 86.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Delta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2020-10-09 16:48:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 091448 PWSAT1 HURRICANE DELTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 1500 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOBILE AL 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 2 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) STENNIS MS 34 4 10(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BURAS LA 34 3 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSON MS 34 2 45(47) 7(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) JACKSON MS 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 21 15(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) GFMX 280N 910W 34 11 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) BATON ROUGE LA 34 82 11(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) BATON ROUGE LA 50 2 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 83 4(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) MORGAN CITY LA 50 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MORGAN CITY LA 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 87 12(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 5 73(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 1 35(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) LAFAYETTE LA 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LAFAYETTE LA 50 37 23(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) LAFAYETTE LA 64 10 16(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) NEW IBERIA LA 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW IBERIA LA 50 27 11(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) NEW IBERIA LA 64 8 7(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GFMX 280N 930W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 930W 50 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) GFMX 280N 930W 64 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SHREVEPORT LA 34 4 16(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) FORT POLK LA 34 93 5(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) FORT POLK LA 50 18 42(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) FORT POLK LA 64 3 15(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) LAKE CHARLES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LAKE CHARLES 50 87 5(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) LAKE CHARLES 64 58 12(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) CAMERON LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAMERON LA 50 96 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) CAMERON LA 64 80 2(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) JASPER TX 34 80 5(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) JASPER TX 50 8 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) JASPER TX 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KOUNTZE TX 34 82 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) KOUNTZE TX 50 10 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) KOUNTZE TX 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 36 2(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 10 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GALVESTON TX 34 81 X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) HOUSTON TX 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FREEPORT TX 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MATAGORDA TX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KEESLER AB 34 2 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane Delta Forecast Advisory Number 20
2020-10-09 16:47:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 918 WTNT21 KNHC 091447 TCMAT1 HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 1500 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...AND LAKE BORGNE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TO SARGENT TEXAS * EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER... INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 93.8W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB EYE DIAMETER 35 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......140NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 210SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 93.8W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 93.8W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.0N 93.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 30SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 32.2N 91.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 33.7N 90.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 35.0N 88.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 36.7N 86.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 93.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 09/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Hurricane Delta (AT1/AL262020)
2020-10-09 13:59:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RAINBANDS OF DELTA SPREADING INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY... As of 7:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 the center of Delta was located near 27.5, -93.8 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
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Hurricane Delta Public Advisory Number 19A
2020-10-09 13:59:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 091159 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 700 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 ...RAINBANDS OF DELTA SPREADING INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 93.8W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to Mouth of the Pearl River Louisiana including Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, and Lake Borgne A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West of High Island to Sargent Texas * East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River, including New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 93.8 West. Delta is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today followed by a north-northeastward motion by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move inland within the hurricane warning area this evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is expected to begin as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast later today, with rapid weakening expected after the center moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...5-8 ft Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...3-5 ft Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...4-7 ft Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft High Island, TX to Sabine Pass...2-4 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Mouth of the Pearl River...2-4 ft Lake Borgne...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft Sabine Lake...1-3 ft Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay... 1-3 ft It is important to note that small changes in the track, structure, or intensity of Delta could have large impacts on where the highest storm surge occurs. Users are urged to stay tuned for possible changes and updates. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions expected within this area later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas later today. RAINFALL: Today through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from southwest into central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor to major river flooding. For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding. As the remnants of Delta move further inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend. There is a potential for 3 to 6 inches in the Southern Appalachians, which could lead to isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight over southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi. SURF: Swells from Delta are affecting portions of the northern and western Gulf coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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