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Hurricane Delta Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2020-10-08 23:16:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Thu, 08 Oct 2020 21:16:41 GMT
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Hurricane Delta Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-10-08 23:00:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 082100 TCDAT1 Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 400 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020 Delta is strengthening. In satellite imagery, an eye is now seen in the cold cloud tops of the central dense overcast. On the aircraft side, just received reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft included 700-mb flight-level winds of 119 kt, SFMR winds estimates near 90 kt, and a central pressure of 959 mb inside a 30 n mi wide eye. A blend of the flight-level and SFMR wind estimates give an initial intensity of 100 kt, and Delta is again a major hurricane. The initial motion is now northwestward or 320/10 kt. There is no change to the track forecast philosophy and little change to the track forecast from the previous advisory. During the next 12-24 h, Delta should turn to the north between a mid- to upper-level ridge over the Florida Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico and a mid- to upper-level level trough over the U.S. Southern Plains. This should be followed by a north-northeastward motion that is expected to bring the center near or over the northern Gulf coast, most likely in southwestern Louisiana, in about 30 h. After landfall, the cyclone should move northeastward through the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies until it dissipates. The track guidance remains very tightly clustered in terms of direction, and the new forecast track is near the various consensus models. Shear, sea surface temperature, and moisture conditions appear favorable for strengthening during the next 12 h or so, and based on this additional intensification is expected tonight. A short period of rapid intensification remains possible given current trends, although the various rapid intensification indices are not enthusiastic about the possibilities of this, After 12 h, the global models again forecast strong southwesterly shear developing over the hurricane before landfall, and based on this some weakening is forecast. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall. The system is expected to weaken to a depression no later than 60 h and degenerate to a remnant low by 72 h, with dissipation following shortly thereafter. The intensity forecast lies at or above the upper edge of the intensity guidance. Recent scatterometer data indicates that Delta is growing in size as it approaches the Louisiana coast. The NHC wind radii forecast again follows a combination of the data and the forecasts from global and hurricane regional models. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected near and east of where Delta makes landfall Friday, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect from High Island, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. The highest inundation of 7 to 11 feet is expected somewhere between Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge and Morgan City, Louisiana. Residents in the warning area should promptly follow advice given by local officials. The storm surge risk remains high despite the forecast decrease in intensity before landfall since Delta is expected to grow in size. 2. Hurricane-force winds are expected Friday afternoon and evening somewhere within the Hurricane Warning area between High Island, Texas, and Morgan City, Louisiana. Hurricane force winds will also spread inland across portions of southern Louisiana near the path of Deltas center Friday evening and Friday night. 3. Heavy rainfall will lead to significant flash flooding and minor to major river flooding in parts of Louisiana Friday and Saturday. Additional flooding is expected across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 24.8N 93.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 26.3N 93.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 28.6N 93.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 31.0N 92.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 48H 10/1800Z 32.9N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 11/0600Z 34.3N 89.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 11/1800Z 35.8N 87.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Delta Graphics
2020-10-08 22:56:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Oct 2020 20:56:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Oct 2020 21:24:56 GMT
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Hurricane Delta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-10-08 22:56:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 08 Oct 2020 20:56:54 GMT
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Hurricane Delta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2020-10-08 22:55:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 082055 PWSAT1 HURRICANE DELTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 2100 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOBILE AL 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GULFPORT MS 34 X 4( 4) 17(21) 3(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) STENNIS MS 34 X 6( 6) 27(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) BURAS LA 34 1 6( 7) 22(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) GFMX 280N 890W 34 3 6( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) JACKSON MS 34 X 3( 3) 29(32) 17(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 1 9(10) 41(51) 2(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 910W 34 11 47(58) 3(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BATON ROUGE LA 34 1 18(19) 57(76) 2(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X 1( 1) 22(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MORGAN CITY LA 34 3 31(34) 41(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X 3( 3) 17(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 1 12(13) 70(83) 4(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X 1( 1) 43(44) 6(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) 19(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) LAFAYETTE LA 34 2 42(44) 49(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X 4( 4) 52(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X 1( 1) 28(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) NEW IBERIA LA 34 3 46(49) 42(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X 4( 4) 47(51) 2(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X 1( 1) 22(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) GFMX 280N 930W 34 75 25(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 930W 50 4 82(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) GFMX 280N 930W 64 1 58(59) 3(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 4( 4) 23(27) 4(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FORT POLK LA 34 1 20(21) 61(82) 2(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) FORT POLK LA 50 X 2( 2) 38(40) 3(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) LAKE CHARLES 34 2 58(60) 34(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) LAKE CHARLES 50 X 11(11) 61(72) 2(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) LAKE CHARLES 64 X 3( 3) 38(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) CAMERON LA 34 5 83(88) 10(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) CAMERON LA 50 X 40(40) 43(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) CAMERON LA 64 X 15(15) 44(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) JASPER TX 34 2 19(21) 46(67) 2(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) JASPER TX 50 X 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KOUNTZE TX 34 2 36(38) 32(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) KOUNTZE TX 50 X 4( 4) 18(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) KOUNTZE TX 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 3 61(64) 21(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X 13(13) 32(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X 2( 2) 16(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) GALVESTON TX 34 7 69(76) 3(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) GALVESTON TX 50 X 24(24) 5(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) GALVESTON TX 64 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HOUSTON TX 34 3 19(22) 12(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) HOUSTON TX 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AUSTIN TX 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 4 35(39) 3(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) FREEPORT TX 50 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 34 56 32(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) GFMX 280N 950W 50 4 29(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) GFMX 280N 950W 64 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 4 68(72) 7(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X 18(18) 12(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MATAGORDA TX 34 6 29(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) MATAGORDA TX 50 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 5 14(19) 1(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) PORT O CONNOR 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ROCKPORT TX 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 270N 960W 34 39 7(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) GFMX 270N 960W 50 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MCALLEN TX 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HARLINGEN TX 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 10 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KEESLER AB 34 X 7( 7) 13(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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