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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Discussion Number 20
2021-10-04 10:56:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 040856 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 Strong southerly vertical wind shear in excess of 25 kt along with entrainment of very dry mid-level air (less than 40 percent relative humidity) has continued to take its toll on Victor. Deep convection has been weakening during the past couple of hours and is now displaced more than 100 nmi north and northeast of the elongated low-level center. The shear is forecast by the global models to increase to more than 30 kt in the next 6-12 hours, while the surrounding environment becomes drier and more stable. As a result, the cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low later today and likely dissipate by Tuesday, if not sooner. Victor is moving west-northwestward or 300/12 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue through today based on the latest NHC model guidance. As a result, no significant changes were made to the previous track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 18.1N 43.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 19.2N 45.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Victor Graphics
2021-10-04 10:48:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Oct 2021 08:48:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Oct 2021 08:48:28 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Victor (AT5/AL202021)
2021-10-04 10:46:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...VICTOR EXPECTED TO VANISH LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Oct 4 the center of Victor was located near 18.1, -43.6 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Victor Public Advisory Number 20
2021-10-04 10:46:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 040846 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Victor Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 ...VICTOR EXPECTED TO VANISH LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 43.6W ABOUT 1300 MI...2095 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Victor was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 43.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continued through today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast, and Victor is expected to become a remnant low later today and dissipate by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Victor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2021-10-04 10:46:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 040846 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0900 UTC MON OCT 04 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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