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Hurricane INGRID Forecast Discussion Number 10
2013-09-14 22:40:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 142039 TCDAT5 HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013 THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA OF INGRID UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AN EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN PRESENT INTERMITTENTLY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...AND DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES...INCLUDING THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN...INDICATE THAT INGRID HAS BECOME A HURRICANE WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. INGRID IS THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2013 SEASON. BOTH OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO... BEFORE THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE CONSENSUS...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE LGEM/SHIPS MODEL PAIR. NONE OF THE CURRENT GUIDANCE FORECASTS INGRID TO BECOME AN MAJOR HURRICANE. INGRID HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 6 OR 7 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. SOON...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND WILL FORCE THE HURRICANE TO TURN WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO. WHILE THE THE WESTWARD TURN IS VERY LIKELY TO OCCUR...AS SHOWN BY ALL THE MODELS...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF LANDFALL. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST MODEL...KEEPING INGRID OVER WATER FOR ABOUT 60 HOURS OR MORE WHILE THE NHC FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER TO THE COAST IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...GIVING CREDIT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TURN INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 21.3N 94.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 22.0N 94.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 22.7N 95.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 22.8N 97.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 22.5N 98.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/1800Z 22.0N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/1800Z 21.5N 99.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Hurricane INGRID Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2013-09-14 22:40:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 14 2013 000 FONT15 KNHC 142039 PWSAT5 HURRICANE INGRID WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 2100 UTC SAT SEP 14 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 2 30 51 NA TROP DEPRESSION X 1 5 5 35 21 NA TROPICAL STORM 26 26 43 55 23 13 NA HURRICANE 74 73 52 38 12 16 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 69 59 41 30 8 9 NA HUR CAT 2 5 12 9 7 3 5 NA HUR CAT 3 X 2 2 1 1 2 NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70KT 75KT 75KT 65KT 30KT 20KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) GFMX 270N 960W 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) 3(13) X(13) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 1 4( 5) 6(11) 4(15) 3(18) 5(23) X(23) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 2 11(13) 13(26) 4(30) 5(35) 4(39) X(39) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) X(10) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LA PESCO MX 34 2 6( 8) 33(41) 15(56) 7(63) 3(66) X(66) LA PESCO MX 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) 3(19) 3(22) X(22) LA PESCO MX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) TAMPICO MX 34 2 7( 9) 34(43) 16(59) 8(67) 1(68) X(68) TAMPICO MX 50 X 1( 1) 10(11) 10(21) 5(26) 1(27) X(27) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) TUXPAN MX 34 2 5( 7) 11(18) 9(27) 8(35) 2(37) X(37) TUXPAN MX 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 3(12) 5(17) X(17) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) FRONTERA MX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) MERIDA MX 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Hurricane INGRID Forecast Advisory Number 10
2013-09-14 22:39:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 14 2013 000 WTNT25 KNHC 142038 TCMAT5 HURRICANE INGRID FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 2100 UTC SAT SEP 14 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ADJUSTED THE PREVIOUS WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE GULF COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES...AND FROM SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM COATZACOALCOS TO SOUTH OF TUXPAN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES * SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF INGRID. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 94.4W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 94.4W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 94.4W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 22.0N 94.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 22.7N 95.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 22.8N 97.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.5N 98.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 22.0N 99.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 21.5N 99.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 94.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm INGRID Graphics
2013-09-14 19:44:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2013 17:44:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2013 15:07:25 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm INGRID (AT5/AL102013)
2013-09-14 19:42:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...INGRID EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON... As of 1:00 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 the center of INGRID was located near 20.9, -94.4 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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