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Hurricane INGRID Public Advisory Number 15
2013-09-16 04:53:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 160253 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013 ...INGRID TURNS BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST... ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIND NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.1N 96.5W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM NE OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF LA PESCA TO RIO SAN FERNANDO * SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS LOCATED BY NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST. INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF INGRID SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DATA FROM THE TWO RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST. WEAKENING WILL BEGIN ONCE INGRID MOVES OVER LAND. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...MAINLY TO NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA MONDAY MORNING...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF INGRID MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane INGRID Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2013-09-16 04:50:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2013 000 FONT15 KNHC 160250 PWSAT5 HURRICANE INGRID WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 19 47 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION X 15 49 38 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 48 69 29 15 NA NA NA HURRICANE 52 15 2 1 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 49 12 2 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 3 2 X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 1 X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 45KT 30KT 20KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 270N 960W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LA PESCO MX 34 44 32(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) LA PESCO MX 50 3 9(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) LA PESCO MX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TAMPICO MX 34 10 37(47) 2(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) TAMPICO MX 50 1 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) TAMPICO MX 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TUXPAN MX 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) VERACRUZ MX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane INGRID Forecast Advisory Number 15
2013-09-16 04:49:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2013 000 WTNT25 KNHC 160249 TCMAT5 HURRICANE INGRID FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF LA PESCA TO RIO SAN FERNANDO * SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 96.5W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 96.5W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 96.1W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 23.2N 97.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.9N 98.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 22.5N 99.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 22.1N 100.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 96.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane INGRID Graphics
2013-09-16 01:47:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2013 23:47:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2013 21:04:46 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane INGRID (AT5/AL102013)
2013-09-16 01:44:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...INGRID SLOWS DOWN AS IT MAKES A JOG TO THE NORTHWEST... ...OUTER RAIN BANDS MOVING ONSHORE THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 7:00 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 the center of INGRID was located near 22.9, -96.1 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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