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Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)
2020-07-08 10:33:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 3:00 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 the center of Cristina was located near 13.9, -106.5 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 7
2020-07-08 10:33:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 080832 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 ...CRISTINA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 106.5W ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 106.5 West. Cristina is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days, keeping the cyclone well away from the coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Cristina is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-07-08 10:33:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 080832 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 300 AM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020 Satellite images indicate that deep convection has been gradually increasing in association with Cristina during the past several hours. However, the storm still lacks banding features and the low-level center is located on the northeastern side of the convection due to moderate wind shear. An ASCAT-B overpass from a few hours ago showed maximum winds of only 30-35 kt in the southeastern quadrant. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory blending the ASCAT data with the 3.0/45 kt Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Cristina is forecast to remain over warm SSTs and in a moist air mass for the next couple of days. These favorable conditions combined with lessening wind shear should promote steady strengthening during the next two days or so. However, beyond that time, Cristina is expected to move over waters cooler than 26 C and into a progressively drier and more stable environment. These negative factors for the cyclone should promote weakening after 48 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is again nudged downward from the previous one, but it still lies at the high end of the guidance in the short term in case Cristina takes advantage of the generally conducive conditions for intensification. The tropical storm has turned a little to the left recently, but its longer term motion is still west-northwestward at 13 kt. A deep-layer ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to remain stationary, and that should cause the cyclone to continue moving west-northwestward at about the same forward speed for the next 4 days or so. By the end of the forecast period, a slight turn to the west is forecast as the weakening system is expected to be steered by the low-level flow. The track models are tightly packed, and only minor changes were made to the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 13.9N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 14.9N 108.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 16.1N 109.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 17.1N 111.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 18.0N 113.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 19.0N 115.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 20.0N 118.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 21.4N 123.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 21.9N 129.2W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-07-08 10:33:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 08 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 080832 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0900 UTC WED JUL 08 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 1 22(23) 3(26) X(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) 15N 110W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 110W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 45(70) X(70) X(70) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 30(37) X(37) X(37) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) X(22) X(22) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 40(46) 1(47) X(47) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 28(48) X(48) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) X(17) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 10(22) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-07-08 10:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 08 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 080832 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0900 UTC WED JUL 08 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 106.5W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 180SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 106.5W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 106.0W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.9N 108.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.1N 109.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.1N 111.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.0N 113.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.0N 115.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.0N 118.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 21.4N 123.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 21.9N 129.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 106.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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