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Tropical Storm Lee Graphics

2017-09-30 04:37:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 30 Sep 2017 02:37:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 30 Sep 2017 02:37:35 GMT

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Tropical Storm Lee Forecast Discussion Number 48

2017-09-30 04:33:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 300232 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 Lee has been devoid of deep convection for the past 6 hours due to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear and sea-surface temperatures near 20 deg C. The initial intensity has been lowered to 50 kt based on a UW-CIMSS ADT intensity estimate of 51 kt and typical decay rate for tropical cyclones at that latitude. Lee is forecast to become an extratropical low in the next 6-12 h due to aforementioned strong shear and cold ocean temperatures. However, due to a continued increase in forward speed, little change in strength is expected until dissipation occurs in 12-24 hours despite the lack of any significant convection with the system. Lee has continued to accelerate toward the northeast, and the initial motion estimate is now 060/36 kt. For the next day or so, Lee will remain embedded within deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-/upper-level trough, and continue to accelerate toward the northeast. Since the models remain tightly clustered, no change was made to the previous forecast track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 44.3N 42.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 47.8N 33.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Summary for Tropical Storm Lee (AT4/AL142017)

2017-09-30 04:32:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LEE MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 29 the center of Lee was located near 44.3, -42.8 with movement ENE at 41 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Lee Public Advisory Number 48

2017-09-30 04:32:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 300231 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lee Advisory Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 ...LEE MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...44.3N 42.8W ABOUT 925 MI...1490 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 41 MPH...67 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lee was located near latitude 44.3 North, longitude 42.8 West. Lee is moving toward the east-northeast near 41 mph (67 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Lee is expected to lose its tropical characteristics early Saturday morning and dissipate by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 48

2017-09-30 04:32:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 30 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 300231 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0300 UTC SAT SEP 30 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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