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Tropical Storm Lee Forecast Advisory Number 46

2017-09-29 16:46:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 29 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 291446 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 1500 UTC FRI SEP 29 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.1N 49.5W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 27 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 60SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 120SE 110SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.1N 49.5W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 51.2W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 43.1N 43.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 70SE 60SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 130SE 120SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 47.6N 32.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 70SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 150SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.1N 49.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Hurricane Lee Graphics

2017-09-29 10:56:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 29 Sep 2017 08:56:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 29 Sep 2017 08:56:39 GMT

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Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 45

2017-09-29 10:51:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 290851 TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 45 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 Lee's low-level center is partially exposed along the northern edge of the convective canopy due to almost 40 kt of northerly shear. ASCAT data from last evening showed winds as high as 70 kt, so assuming some weakening due to the belligerent shear, the initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt. Lee will be crossing the tight SST gradient to the north of the Gulf Stream within the next 6-12 hours, and along with continued strong shear, this should cause the cyclone to weaken further and become a tropical storm later today. Global model guidance then indicates that Lee will dissipate in the fast flow ahead of an approaching cold front by 36 hours. Even after Lee's circulation opens up, a swath of strong winds will likely continue eastward toward Ireland and the United Kingdom by days 2 and 3. Lee is accelerating northeastward with an initial motion of 040/22 kt. The cyclone should maintain that heading with its speed increasing further up until the time it dissipates. The track guidance is tightly clustered for the next 24 hours before dissipation, and the NHC forecast is mainly an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 38.3N 52.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 41.1N 48.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 45.4N 39.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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Summary for Hurricane Lee (AT4/AL142017)

2017-09-29 10:50:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LEE A LITTLE WEAKER WHILE MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 29 the center of Lee was located near 38.3, -52.4 with movement NE at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 45

2017-09-29 10:50:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 290850 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 45 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 ...LEE A LITTLE WEAKER WHILE MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.3N 52.4W ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM NE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1375 MI...2215 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 38.3 North, longitude 52.4 West. Lee is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h). An acceleration toward the northeast is forecast to continue through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Lee is expected to become a tropical storm later today. Lee will then dissipate by Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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