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Hurricane Lee Public Advisory Number 45

2017-09-29 10:50:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 290850 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 45 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 ...LEE A LITTLE WEAKER WHILE MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.3N 52.4W ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM NE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1375 MI...2215 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 38.3 North, longitude 52.4 West. Lee is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h). An acceleration toward the northeast is forecast to continue through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Lee is expected to become a tropical storm later today. Lee will then dissipate by Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Hurricane Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 45

2017-09-29 10:50:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 29 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 290850 PWSAT4 HURRICANE LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0900 UTC FRI SEP 29 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Hurricane Lee Forecast Advisory Number 45

2017-09-29 10:50:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 29 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 290849 TCMAT4 HURRICANE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0900 UTC FRI SEP 29 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 52.4W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 30SE 35SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 60SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 120SE 110SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 52.4W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.3N 53.8W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 41.1N 48.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 70SE 60SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 130SE 120SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 45.4N 39.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 140SE 150SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.3N 52.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Hurricane Lee Graphics

2017-09-29 04:36:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 29 Sep 2017 02:36:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 29 Sep 2017 03:22:16 GMT

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Hurricane Lee Forecast Discussion Number 44

2017-09-29 04:32:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 290232 TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2017 Due to the 40 kt of belligerent northerly shear impinging on the northern half of the cyclone, Lee's surface circulation center has become partially exposed near the northwestern edge of the cloud canopy. A compromise of the subjective and objective Dvorak satellite T-number estimates yields a reduced initial intensity of 70 kt. Persistent strong northerly to northwesterly shear and decreasing oceanic temperatures should further weaken Lee during the next 36 hours. Afterward, the global models indicate that the system will become absorbed by a larger baroclinic system over the northern Atlantic. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and is an average of the Decay-SHIP and LGEM models. The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 045/19 kt. The decaying cyclone is expected to continue accelerating toward the northeast within deep-layer mid-latitude southwesterly flow until dissipation occurs in 48 hours. The NHC forecast follows the TVCN multi-model consensus and the ECMWF closely, and is basically an update of the previous track forecast. Lee's wind radii have been adjusted based on a recent 0012 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer overpass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 36.3N 54.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 39.1N 51.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 43.2N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 47.6N 36.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

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