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Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Forecast Advisory Number 49

2017-09-30 10:38:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 30 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 300838 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0900 UTC SAT SEP 30 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.7N 35.6W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 44 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 130SE 130SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 270SE 390SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.7N 35.6W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.8N 38.9W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 49.9N 24.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 110SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 46.7N 35.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW...AND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR. $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm Lee Graphics

2017-09-30 04:37:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 30 Sep 2017 02:37:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 30 Sep 2017 02:37:35 GMT

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Tropical Storm Lee Forecast Discussion Number 48

2017-09-30 04:33:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 300232 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 Lee has been devoid of deep convection for the past 6 hours due to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear and sea-surface temperatures near 20 deg C. The initial intensity has been lowered to 50 kt based on a UW-CIMSS ADT intensity estimate of 51 kt and typical decay rate for tropical cyclones at that latitude. Lee is forecast to become an extratropical low in the next 6-12 h due to aforementioned strong shear and cold ocean temperatures. However, due to a continued increase in forward speed, little change in strength is expected until dissipation occurs in 12-24 hours despite the lack of any significant convection with the system. Lee has continued to accelerate toward the northeast, and the initial motion estimate is now 060/36 kt. For the next day or so, Lee will remain embedded within deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-/upper-level trough, and continue to accelerate toward the northeast. Since the models remain tightly clustered, no change was made to the previous forecast track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 44.3N 42.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 47.8N 33.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Summary for Tropical Storm Lee (AT4/AL142017)

2017-09-30 04:32:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LEE MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 29 the center of Lee was located near 44.3, -42.8 with movement ENE at 41 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Lee Public Advisory Number 48

2017-09-30 04:32:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 300231 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lee Advisory Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 ...LEE MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...44.3N 42.8W ABOUT 925 MI...1490 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 41 MPH...67 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lee was located near latitude 44.3 North, longitude 42.8 West. Lee is moving toward the east-northeast near 41 mph (67 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Lee is expected to lose its tropical characteristics early Saturday morning and dissipate by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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