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Tropical Storm Lee Graphics

2017-09-29 16:53:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 29 Sep 2017 14:53:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 29 Sep 2017 15:25:10 GMT

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Tropical Storm Lee Forecast Discussion Number 46

2017-09-29 16:48:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 291448 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 Lee continues to accelerate toward the northeast, and the estimated motion is now 045/27 kt. Due to continued strong northerly shear, the low-level center of Lee is exposed and deep convection is confined to the southeast quadrant of the cyclone. No new ASCAT data has been available since yesterday evening, but some weakening since the last advisory is assumed, given the limited extent of convection. The initial intensity has been lowered to 60 kt, making Lee a tropical storm. Lee is crossing a tight SST gradient north of the Gulf Stream, and will be passing over SSTs below 23 deg C within the next couple of hours. The cold SSTs, plus continued high shear, should cause the circulation of Lee to continue to spin down over the next day or two, while the cyclone continues to accelerate toward the northeast. Some of Lee's spin-down will likely be offset by the increasing forward speed of the cyclone, limiting how much the wind speed can decrease, but the dynamical models still forecast that Lee will open up into a trough in 24 to 36 h. Very little change has been made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts, which remain close to the track and intensity consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 40.1N 49.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 43.1N 43.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 47.6N 32.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Storm Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 46

2017-09-29 16:46:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 29 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 291446 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 1500 UTC FRI SEP 29 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Summary for Tropical Storm Lee (AT4/AL142017)

2017-09-29 16:46:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LEE WEAKENS TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 29 the center of Lee was located near 40.1, -49.5 with movement NE at 31 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm Lee Public Advisory Number 46

2017-09-29 16:46:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 291446 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lee Advisory Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 ...LEE WEAKENS TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.1N 49.5W ABOUT 1005 MI...1620 KM NE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1210 MI...1950 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lee was located near latitude 40.1 North, longitude 49.5 West. Lee is moving toward the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h). Lee is forecast to continue accelerating toward the northeast today and tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast for the next 24 hours, and Lee is expected to dissipate on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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