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Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Graphics

2017-09-30 10:44:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 30 Sep 2017 08:44:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 30 Sep 2017 08:44:58 GMT

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Forecast Discussion Number 49

2017-09-30 10:39:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 300839 TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Discussion Number 49 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2017 Lee is now over water colder than 20 degrees Celsius and is being blasted by 35 kt of west-northwesterly shear, and it has not been producing deep convection for at least the past 12 hours. The cyclone has therefore become post tropical, and this will be the last advisory. Without any deep convection, subjective and objective Dvorak numbers have decreased, and the initial intensity is estimated to be 45 kt. Lee continues to accelerate northeastward with an initial motion estimate of 050/44 kt. Continued acceleration is expected today, although the global model fields indicate that Lee's circulation will open up into a trough within the next 6 to 12 hours. A 12-hour point is provided in the official forecast for continuity's sake, but Lee will most likely have dissipated by then. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR. These forecasts are available on the web at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin and at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 46.7N 35.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 30/1800Z 49.9N 24.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee (AT4/AL142017)

2017-09-30 10:38:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LEE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 30 the center of Lee was located near 46.7, -35.6 with movement NE at 51 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Public Advisory Number 49

2017-09-30 10:38:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 300838 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Advisory Number 49 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2017 ...LEE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...46.7N 35.6W ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM NNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 51 MPH...81 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee was located near latitude 46.7 North, longitude 35.6 West. Lee is moving rapidly toward the northeast near 51 mph (81 km/h), and an even faster northeastward motion is expected today before Lee dissipates. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Lee is expected to degenerate into a trough of low pressure later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR. These forecasts are available on the web at http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin and at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 49

2017-09-30 10:38:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 30 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 300838 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0900 UTC SAT SEP 30 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG

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