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Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 49

2017-09-30 10:38:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 30 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 300838 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0900 UTC SAT SEP 30 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee Forecast Advisory Number 49

2017-09-30 10:38:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 30 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 300838 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0900 UTC SAT SEP 30 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.7N 35.6W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 44 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 130SE 130SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 270SE 390SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 46.7N 35.6W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 45.8N 38.9W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 49.9N 24.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 110SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 46.7N 35.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW...AND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR. $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm Lee Graphics

2017-09-30 04:37:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 30 Sep 2017 02:37:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 30 Sep 2017 02:37:35 GMT

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Tropical Storm Lee Forecast Discussion Number 48

2017-09-30 04:33:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 300232 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 Lee has been devoid of deep convection for the past 6 hours due to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear and sea-surface temperatures near 20 deg C. The initial intensity has been lowered to 50 kt based on a UW-CIMSS ADT intensity estimate of 51 kt and typical decay rate for tropical cyclones at that latitude. Lee is forecast to become an extratropical low in the next 6-12 h due to aforementioned strong shear and cold ocean temperatures. However, due to a continued increase in forward speed, little change in strength is expected until dissipation occurs in 12-24 hours despite the lack of any significant convection with the system. Lee has continued to accelerate toward the northeast, and the initial motion estimate is now 060/36 kt. For the next day or so, Lee will remain embedded within deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-/upper-level trough, and continue to accelerate toward the northeast. Since the models remain tightly clustered, no change was made to the previous forecast track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 44.3N 42.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 47.8N 33.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Summary for Tropical Storm Lee (AT4/AL142017)

2017-09-30 04:32:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LEE MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON SATURDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 29 the center of Lee was located near 44.3, -42.8 with movement ENE at 41 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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