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Tropical Storm Mindy Forecast Advisory Number 2

2021-09-09 04:46:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 090246 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM MINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021 0300 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST WEST OF INDIAN PASS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MINDY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 84.5W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 84.5W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 85.4W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 31.0N 81.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 32.2N 77.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 33.1N 73.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 33.7N 70.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 34.1N 68.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 34.3N 66.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 84.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 09/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Mindy Public Advisory Number 2

2021-09-09 04:46:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 08 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 090246 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mindy Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 08 2021 ...CENTER OF MINDY MOVING ALONG THE COAST OF APALACHEE BAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.9N 84.5W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSW OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued for the Florida Gulf coast west of Indian pass. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests along the Atlantic coast of northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia should monitor the progress of Mindy. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mindy was located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 84.5 West. Mindy is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h) and an east-northeastward to eastward motion is expected to continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Mindy is expected to move along the coastline of Apalachee Bay for the next few hours, then move across the northern Florida Peninsula and southeastern Georgia into the Atlantic by tomorrow morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected as Mindy moves over land and into an area of unfavorable upper-level winds. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. The Tyndall Air Force Base tower south of Apalachicola recently reported sustained winds of 49 mph (80 km/h) and a wind gust of 61 mph (98 km/h) at an elevation of 115 ft (35 m). In addition, there are multiple reports of wind gusts near 55 mph (89 km/h) from St. George Island, Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Mindy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Mindy is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across the Florida Panhandle into southern portions of Georgia and South Carolina through Thursday morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area later this evening and tonight. Tropical-storm force winds may occur near the center of Mindy over portions of the northern Florida Peninsula and southeastern Georgia. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible over portions of north Florida and far south Georgia through tomorrow morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Summary for Tropical Storm Mindy (AT3/AL132021)

2021-09-09 03:17:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CENTER OF MINDY MOVING ALONG THE COAST OF APALACHEE BAY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 8 the center of Mindy was located near 29.9, -84.5 with movement NE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm Mindy Graphics

2021-09-09 01:41:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 08 Sep 2021 23:41:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 08 Sep 2021 21:29:15 GMT

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Tropical Storm Mindy Public Advisory Number 1A

2021-09-09 01:40:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 700 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021 099 WTNT33 KNHC 082340 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Mindy Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 700 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021 ...CENTER OF MINDY ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.6N 85.4W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mexico Beach to Steinhatchee River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next 6 to 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Mindy was located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 85.4 West. Mindy is moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and a northeast to east-northeast motion is expected to continue over the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Mindy is expected to cross the coastline of the Florida Panhandle during the next hour or two, then cross portions of the Florida Panhandle and southeastern Georgia tonight. Mindy is then expected to move offshore of the southeastern United States into the western Atlantic Ocean by tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Mindy makes landfall in the Florida Panhandle. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) manly to the southeast of the center. During the past few hours, NOAA buoy 42039 reported sustained winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a wind gust of 54 mph (86 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). NOAA buoy 42039 reported a minimum pressure of 1006.5 mb (29.72) as the center passed nearby, HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Mindy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Mindy is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches across the Florida Panhandle into southern portions of Georgia and South Carolina through Thursday morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area later this evening and tonight. TORNADOES: A few isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of the Florida Panhandle this evening into tomorrow morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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