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Post-Tropical Cyclone Mindy Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-09-10 04:45:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 283 WTNT23 KNHC 100245 TCMAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021 0300 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 75.0W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 75.0W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 76.1W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 33.2N 71.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 34.1N 67.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.5N 75.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Tropical Depression Mindy Graphics
2021-09-09 22:40:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 20:40:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 20:40:39 GMT
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Tropical Depression Mindy Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-09-09 22:39:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 092039 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Mindy Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 The latest infrared satellite imagery indicates that Mindy has been devoid of convection near its center since about the time it emerged over the Atlantic this morning. Deep convection is present well to the northeast of Mindy along a surface trough that extends northeastward from the cyclone. A late morning ASCAT pass showed a large area of 25 to 30 kt winds southeast of the center. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on this data. The ASCAT data and surface observations indicate that the circulation has become less well-defined, with barely any east winds observed on the north side. Mindy is located in an environment of strong south to southwesterly vertical wind shear. Over the next 24 h, the shear is expected to become even stronger. The latest forecast calls for Mindy to become post-tropical on Friday and dissipate Friday night. However, based on the lack on convection and the deteriorating wind structure, it is quite possible that dissipation could occur much sooner than forecast. Mindy continues moving quickly off to the east-northeast, with a motion of 075/20 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy. Mindy is forecast to continue moving east-northeastward at a similar speed for the next 24 h near the southern portion of a deep-layer trough moving across the eastern United States. Once the trough begins to lift northeastward, Mindy should slow down a little on Friday. The NHC forecast is a little south of and slightly faster than the previous forecast, mainly due to the farther south initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 32.0N 78.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 32.9N 74.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 33.8N 71.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Hagen
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Tropical Depression Mindy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-09-09 22:37:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 075 FONT13 KNHC 092037 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021 2100 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY/HAGEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Mindy (AT3/AL132021)
2021-09-09 22:37:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MINDY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... As of 5:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 9 the center of Mindy was located near 32.0, -78.3 with movement ENE at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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