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Tropical Depression Mindy Graphics
2021-09-09 10:43:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 08:43:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Sep 2021 08:43:13 GMT
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Tropical Depression Mindy Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-09-09 10:42:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 090842 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Mindy Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 Doppler radar data and surface observations show that the center of Mindy has moved inland over southern Georgia overnight. Now that more of the circulation has moved over land, the cyclone has weakened and the latest observations indicate that Mindy has become a tropical depression with an estimated intensity of 30 kt. Mindy is forecast to move over the western Atlantic by this afternoon, but strong southwesterly shear is expected to prevent re-strengthening. In fact, the shear is forecast to increase to around 35 kt by tonight, and this is likely to strip away any remaining deep convection and cause gradual weakening. Mindy is forecast to become a remnant low in about 48 hours and dissipate by day 3, but given the expected shear both of those events could occur sooner. Mindy continues to move briskly northeastward or 055/17 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast philosophy since the previous advisory. Mindy should continue to move northeastward near the southern portion of a deep-layer trough that will be moving across the eastern United States today. Once the trough begins to lift northeastward late tonight and Friday, Mindy should slow down and turn east-northeastward until dissipation occurs. The guidance envelope has shifted slightly northward this cycle, and the updated NHC track forecast has been modified accordingly. The new NHC track lies between the GFEX consensus aid and the GFS ensemble mean. Key Messages: 1. Mindy is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of southern Georgia and coastal South Carolina this morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding. 2. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are possible across portions of southeastern Georgia this morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 30.8N 83.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 31.9N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 10/0600Z 33.0N 75.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 33.9N 72.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 34.4N 69.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 11/1800Z 34.8N 67.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Mindy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-09-09 10:42:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 090841 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021 0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MAYPORT NS FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Mindy Public Advisory Number 3
2021-09-09 10:42:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 090841 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Mindy Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 09 2021 ...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM MINDY SPREADING INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 83.0W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning along the Gulf coast of Florida has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the Atlantic coast of northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia should monitor the progress of Mindy. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Mindy was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 83.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A slower east-northeastward motion is forecast tonight through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Mindy is expected to move across southeastern Georgia this morning, and over the western Atlantic by late this morning or early this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through tonight. Gradual weakening is expected on Friday, and Mindy is forecast to become a remnant low by Saturday. The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Mindy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Mindy is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across portions of southern Georgia and coastal South Carolina through this morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding. WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts may occur near the center of Mindy over portions of the southeastern Georgia through this morning. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible over portions of north Florida and far south Georgia through this morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Mindy Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-09-09 10:42:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 090841 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132021 0900 UTC THU SEP 09 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MINDY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 83.0W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 83.0W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 83.9W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 31.9N 80.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 33.0N 75.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 33.9N 72.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 34.4N 69.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 34.8N 67.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 83.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 09/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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