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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-08-19 16:35:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 191435 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 Henri is not as well organized as it was yesterday. Microwave images show that the vortex is titled to the south with height due to about 25 kt of north-northeasterly wind shear. The system is still producing a fair amount of deep convection, however, and the cloud pattern resembles a central dense overcast with banding features limited to the south side of the circulation. The Dvorak estimates continue to range from 55 kt to 65 kt, and therefore, the initial intensity is again held at 60 kt. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Henri later today, and the data the aircraft collects will be very helpful in assessing the storm's structure and strength. The tropical storm is moving just south of due west at 9 kt. Henri is expected to move generally westward through tonight as the storm remains on the south side of a mid-level ridge. On Friday, however, a trough is expected to cut off over the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic region of the U.S. while a ridge amplifies to the east of Henri over the western Atlantic. A combination of these features should cause Henri to turn northward on Friday and accelerate in that direction over the weekend. By early next week, the ridge is expected to weaken, which should cause Henri to turn more toward the east. The models are in much better agreement than they were yesterday and their solutions are clustering around southern New England on Sunday and Monday. The NHC track forecast is just a tad to the left of the previous one and lies near the typically best-performing models, the various consensus aids. In addition to the Air Force aircraft that flies through the storm, the NOAA Gulfstream IV jet will also be flying around Henri later today to help assess the environmental conditions and gather data for the numerical models. It is hoped that these data will help the models more accurately predict the future track of the storm. The current north-northeasterly shear over Henri is forecast to continue for about another day, and given the degraded structure of the system it seems unlikely that the storm will strengthen during that time period. However, the shear is expected to decrease on Friday and it will remain quite low through the weekend. Therefore, strengthening to a hurricane is expected during that time period. Once Henri crosses the north wall of the Gulf Stream in a few days, steady weakening is predicted. The NHC intensity forecast is just an update of the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. It should be noted that as Henri gains latitude and moves near New England, the wind field is expected to expand. Therefore, users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast points as impacts will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Henri is forecast to be near the northeast coast of the U.S. on Sunday and Monday, and the risks of storm surge, wind, and rain impacts in portions of southern New England and eastern Long Island are increasing. Watches will likely be required for portions of this area on Friday. 2. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 29.5N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 29.7N 71.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 30.4N 72.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 31.9N 72.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 34.4N 72.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 37.3N 70.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 39.6N 70.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 41.6N 69.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 42.3N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Linda Information by ATCF XML Prototype
2021-08-19 16:35:26| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at Thu, 19 Aug 2021 14:35:26 GMT. This is only a prototype and the file format may change without notice.
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Summary for Tropical Storm Henri (AT3/AL082021)
2021-08-19 16:35:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HENRI STILL MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... ...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... As of 11:00 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 the center of Henri was located near 29.5, -70.5 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Henri Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2021-08-19 16:35:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 791 FONT13 KNHC 191435 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 1500 UTC THU AUG 19 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) 12(33) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 9(26) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 5(22) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) BAR HARBOR ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 5(23) AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) 5(27) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) PORTLAND ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) 4(26) CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) CONCORD NH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 19(27) 5(32) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) PORTSMOUTH NH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 18(28) 4(32) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) WORCESTER MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 15(24) 3(27) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) SPRINGFIELD MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 20(33) 5(38) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 19(43) 4(47) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 1(18) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 48(48) 18(66) 3(69) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 13(32) 3(35) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 20(52) 4(56) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) 2(23) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 12(22) 2(24) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) BRIDGEPORT CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 13(24) 3(27) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) NEW HAVEN CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15(25) 3(28) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 15(30) 4(34) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) NEW LONDON CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 2(17) POUGHKEEPSIE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 16(52) 3(55) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) 2(21) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) 2(24) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) ISLIP NY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 12(30) 2(32) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) 2(18) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 2(16) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 2(12) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 1(15) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 1(12) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17) 1(18) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 3(17) 1(18) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) 1(16) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 1(12) 1(13) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) 1(11) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 15
2021-08-19 16:35:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 191435 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 ...HENRI STILL MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... ...INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.5N 70.5W ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 810 MI...1300 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Henri. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 70.5 West. Henri is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is forecast on Friday, followed by an acceleration toward the north and north-northeast Saturday and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Henri will remain well offshore of the east coast of the United States over the next couple of days, but it is forecast to be near southern New England on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but Henri is forecast to intensify into a hurricane on Friday with additional strengthening predicted to occur this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Henri should continue to affect Bermuda during the next day or so. Swells are expected to increase across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada later this week and this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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