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Tropical Storm Sebastien Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20

2019-11-24 09:47:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 24 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 240847 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 0900 UTC SUN NOV 24 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 2 93(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X 26(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PONTA DELGADA 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Summary for Tropical Storm Sebastien (AT5/AL202019)

2019-11-24 09:46:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...SEBASTIEN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN AZORES... ...FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Nov 24 the center of Sebastien was located near 36.0, -40.0 with movement NE at 33 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Sebastien Public Advisory Number 20

2019-11-24 09:46:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Nov 24 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 240846 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sebastien Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 500 AM AST Sun Nov 24 2019 ...SEBASTIEN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN AZORES... ...FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.0N 40.0W ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 33 MPH...54 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Sebastien. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sebastien was located near latitude 36.0 North, longitude 40.0 West. Sebastien is moving faster toward the northeast near 33 mph (54 km/h), and an additional increase in speed toward the northeast is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Sebastien will pass near the western Azores tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. A slow decrease in the maximum winds is expected during the next couple of days. Sebastien is forecast to become post-tropical tonight and then merge with another weather system over the northeastern Atlantic on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND AND RAIN: Regardless of its status, Sebastien or its remnants are expected to bring gusty winds and rain to the Azores beginning later today. Please see products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere (IPMA) for more information. SURF: Swells generated by Sebastien are expected to reach the Azores later today and tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Advisory Number 20

2019-11-24 09:46:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN NOV 24 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 240846 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 0900 UTC SUN NOV 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SEBASTIEN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 40.0W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 29 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 330SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 40.0W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 41.7W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.5N 34.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 42.1N 26.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 170SE 170SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 46.2N 17.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 200SE 180SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 50.0N 11.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 240SE 240SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.0N 40.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Discussion Number 19

2019-11-24 03:55:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Nov 23 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 240255 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Sebastien Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 1100 PM AST Sat Nov 23 2019 Over the large scale, Sebastien appears to be undergoing extratropical transition, with a large cirrus shield on the northern side of the storm and unimpressive convection overall. Near the center, however, the storm still has a small inner core, with what appears to be a faint eye feature forming during the past few hours in conventional satellite imagery. This feature also shows up in recent microwave data, suggesting that Sebastien still has more of its tropical character than a cursory look would indicate. Thus, Sebastien is held as a tropical cyclone and, since Dvorak and SATCON estimates remain at 55 kt, the initial wind speed is held at that value. Unfortunately all 3 scatterometer satellites missed the cyclone this evening. Sebastien is quickly moving up on my list of most annoying storms during the 2019 season, and hopefully this isn't another night of it making my forecast look silly. I think (hope?) the intensity outlook is getting easier since the storm will be moving over sub-20C waters by tomorrow morning. There are no signs of significant upper-level cooling at that time, so Sebastien will probably be struggling to produce any organized deep convection. Since baroclinic forcing also appears to be on the wane, a slow weakening is anticipated, and a more complete extratropical transition is forecast by this time tomorrow. This is also indicated by cyclone phase space diagrams derived from the GFS and ECMWF models. While I might have a little more confidence in this prediction than a couple of days ago, I also wouldn't be surprised if Sebastien had another trick up its sleeve. The storm is accelerating northeastward, now estimated at 045/27 kt. The evening model guidance continues the trend noted by my predecessor of a faster motion, so the new NHC prediction is shifted in that direction, and somewhat to the north. Sebastien or its extratropical remnants are expected to bring gusty winds and rain to the Azores beginning on Sunday. Please see products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere (IPMA) for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 34.4N 43.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 37.0N 38.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 40.1N 31.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 25/1200Z 43.9N 22.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 26/0000Z 48.0N 14.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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