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Tropical Storm Vicky Graphics

2020-09-17 04:35:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 17 Sep 2020 02:35:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 17 Sep 2020 02:35:24 GMT

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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Discussion Number 12

2020-09-17 04:34:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 170234 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 A layer of cirrus clouds are covering the center of Vicky, but those clouds are associated with outflow from Hurricane Teddy. A combination of outflow from Teddy and an upper-level low to the north of Vicky is causing very strong westerly winds across the top of the struggling tropical storm. As a result, Vicky is producing minimal convection that is displaced to the east of the center. Recent ASCAT data indicated that the maximum winds are still near 35 kt, but Vicky's wind field is becoming smaller and the system is on the overall decline. There is no indication that the shear will decrease and Vicky should weaken as a result. The NHC forecast calls for Vicky to become a remnant low within 24 hours (if not sooner) and dissipate in a few days. Vicky is still heading generally westward. The tropical storm will likely continue westward through tomorrow morning, and then turn west-southwestward in the low-level tradewind flow after that for as long as it lasts. There is little spread in the track guidance and the NHC forecast is essentially the same as the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 21.6N 35.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 21.6N 37.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 21.0N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/1200Z 20.2N 40.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0000Z 19.4N 42.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Storm Vicky Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

2020-09-17 04:33:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 170233 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 0300 UTC THU SEP 17 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICKY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Summary for Tropical Storm Vicky (AT1/AL212020)

2020-09-17 04:33:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...VICKY SHRINKING AND POISED TO WEAKEN TOMORROW... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 16 the center of Vicky was located near 21.6, -35.8 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Vicky Public Advisory Number 12

2020-09-17 04:33:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 170233 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicky Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 ...VICKY SHRINKING AND POISED TO WEAKEN TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 35.8W ABOUT 860 MI...1390 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 35.8 West. Vicky is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected through Thursday morning, followed by a west-southwestward motion for a day or two after that. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated, and Vicky is forecast to become a remnant low by late Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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