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Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Discussion Number 15

2019-11-23 03:37:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Nov 22 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 230237 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Sebastien Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 1100 PM AST Fri Nov 22 2019 There is not much that I can add that my predecessors have not already addressed except to say that Sebastien does not know that is November near Thanksgiving. One interesting aspect tonight is that although the cloud pattern has not change at all today with the low-level center on the southern edge of the convection due to shear, and with the same Dvorak numbers, ASCAT data that just arrived showed numerous vectors of 50 kt and a few near 55 kt. On this basis, the initial intensity has been adjusted upward to 55 kt in this advisory. Sebastien has to weaken since is heading toward a hostile environment of increasing shear and cooler waters. It might not do it tonight, but the weakening process must begin within the next 24 hours or so. Both the GFS and the ECMWF open up the circulation beyond 48 hours, and with the hostile environment ahead, the NHC forecast calls for gradual weakening and dissipation in 3 days. The cyclone is moving toward the northeast of 055 degrees at 13 kt. Sebastien is embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow, and the cyclone has nowhere to go but to continue moving northeastward with increasing forward speed. Models vary in speed, but on average they all suggest acceleration. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 27.0N 52.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 28.2N 50.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 30.5N 46.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 32.6N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 35.5N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Sebastien Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

2019-11-23 03:37:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 23 2019 372 FONT15 KNHC 230236 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 0300 UTC SAT NOV 23 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Summary for Tropical Storm Sebastien (AT5/AL202019)

2019-11-23 03:37:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...TENACIOUS SEBASTIEN DOES NOT KNOW IS NOVEMBER AND REFUSES TO WEAKEN... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Nov 22 the center of Sebastien was located near 27.0, -52.2 with movement NE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Sebastien Public Advisory Number 15

2019-11-23 03:37:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Nov 22 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 230236 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sebastien Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 1100 PM AST Fri Nov 22 2019 ...TENACIOUS SEBASTIEN DOES NOT KNOW IS NOVEMBER AND REFUSES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 52.2W ABOUT 920 MI...1485 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sebastien was located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 52.2 West. Sebastien is moving toward the northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated, and Sebastien is forecast to dissipate by early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila

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Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Advisory Number 15

2019-11-23 03:36:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 23 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 230236 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 0300 UTC SAT NOV 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 52.2W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT.......170NE 140SE 50SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 52.2W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 52.8W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 28.2N 50.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 30.5N 46.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 32.6N 42.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 35.5N 36.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 52.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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