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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 5

2020-09-18 22:53:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 182053 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that the circulation of Tropical Depression 22 has become better defined, and most objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are now 35 kt. Based on this, along with 33 kt 1-mi average winds from NOAA buoy 42002, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Beta with an initial intensity of 35 kt. Although the system is now a tropical storm, satellite imagery shows that the convective pattern is becoming elongated due to the effects of southwesterly vertical wind shear. Visible imagery and scatterometer data showed that the center of Beta was a bit farther east than previously thought, and the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 025/8. This motion should continue for the next 12-24 h as the storm is steered by a mid- to upper-level trough over Texas and northeastern Mexico. After that time, the trough should weaken and lift out to the northeast, with a mid-level ridge building to the north of the cyclone above an already present low-level ridge. This ridge should act as a Beta blocker, causing the storm to turn westward toward the western Gulf coast. Between 72-120 h, the mid-level ridge weakens as another mid-latitude trough moves through the central United States, and this is expected to cause the storm to slowly recurve toward the northeast. One change in the track guidance since the previous forecast is that the GFS and ECMWF are a bit faster on the westward motion and show the center near the Texas coast in about 72 h. The latter part of the new track forecast also shifts westward, but it is still to the east of the GFS/ECMWF. There is also a chance that Beta could move more northward than forecast before the trough lifts out, which adds an additional touch of uncertainty to the track forecast. So, it is critical that users not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at days 3 to 5. The global models suggest that the current shear may decrease a little after 24 h when the upper-level trough moves away from Beta. However, there is a chance of at least some dry air entrainment that would hamper strengthening. The intensity guidance for the most part continues to forecast Beta to reach a peak intensity below hurricane strength, although the latest SHIPS model forecasts a peak intensity near 65 kt. The new intensity forecast is again unchanged in making Beta a hurricane at 60 and 72 h, and it lies at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. Key Messages: 1. Beta is expected to strengthen and possibly become a hurricane, while moving slowly over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. 2. There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flooding along the northwest Gulf Coast Sunday through at least the middle of next week as Beta is forecast to move slowly toward and along or offshore of the coast through that time. For additional information, see products from your local National Weather Service office. 3. While it is too early to determine what areas could see direct wind and storm surge impacts from Beta, interests throughout the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system and future updates to the forecast. Storm Surge and Tropical Storm or Hurricane watches could be issued tonight or Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 24.3N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 25.1N 92.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 25.9N 93.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 26.1N 93.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 26.3N 94.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 21/0600Z 26.5N 95.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 26.8N 96.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 27.5N 96.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 28.5N 96.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Beta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2020-09-18 22:53:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 182053 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) 2(14) 2(16) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 7( 7) 14(21) 10(31) 8(39) 3(42) 3(45) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) CAMERON LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 4(17) 7(24) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 4(12) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 4(13) GALVESTON TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 12(23) 6(29) 5(34) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) 5(18) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 2(13) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 7(23) 5(28) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 26(40) 14(54) 4(58) 3(61) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) 4(21) 2(23) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 3(13) 5(18) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 21(37) 7(44) 2(46) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) 2(15) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 15(18) 25(43) 6(49) 3(52) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15) 3(18) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 22(28) 7(35) 4(39) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) 2(12) ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 21(26) 8(34) 4(38) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 30(43) 20(63) 5(68) 2(70) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 20(31) 3(34) 2(36) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) 1(14) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 10(25) 3(28) MCALLEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 10(31) 3(34) HARLINGEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) HARLINGEN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 9(30) 4(34) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 13(18) 17(35) 10(45) 2(47) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 5(15) 1(16) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Summary for Tropical Storm Beta (AT2/AL222020)

2020-09-18 22:52:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BETA... As of 4:00 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 the center of Beta was located near 24.3, -93.1 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Beta Public Advisory Number 5

2020-09-18 22:52:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 182052 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 ...DEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BETA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 93.1W ABOUT 335 MI...545 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests along the western Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the progress of Beta. Storm Surge and Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches will likely be required for portions of the western Gulf coast tonight or on Saturday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 93.1 West. Beta is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected through Saturday. A slow westward motion is forecast to begin late Saturday or Saturday night, and this motion will likely continue into early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will approach western coast of the Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional slow strengthening is expected through the weekend, and Beta could be near hurricane strength Sunday or Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells are expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas and the Gulf Coast of Mexico over the weekend, generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 5

2020-09-18 22:52:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 182052 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 INTERESTS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BETA. STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 93.1W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 93.1W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 93.3W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 25.1N 92.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 25.9N 93.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 26.1N 93.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 26.3N 94.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 26.5N 95.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 26.8N 96.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 27.5N 96.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 28.5N 96.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 93.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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