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Tropical Storm Sebastien Public Advisory Number 21

2019-11-24 15:40:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Nov 24 2019 215 WTNT35 KNHC 241440 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sebastien Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 1100 AM AST Sun Nov 24 2019 ...SEBASTIEN OR ITS REMNANTS FORECAST TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE AZORES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.4N 37.0W ABOUT 550 MI...880 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Sebastien. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sebastien was located near latitude 37.4 North, longitude 37.0 West. Sebastien is moving quickly toward the northeast near 32 mph (52 km/h). A faster motion toward the northeast is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Sebastien will pass near the western Azores tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. A slow decrease in the maximum winds is expected during the next couple of days. Sebastien is forecast to become post-tropical by early Monday, and it could degenerate into a trough of low pressure at any time during the next couple of days. Regardless of status, Sebastien or its remnants will likely continue to produce tropical-storm-force winds for at least a couple more days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND AND RAIN: Sebastien or its remnants are expected to bring gusty winds and rain to the Azores beginning later today and tonight. Please see products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere (IPMA) for more information. SURF: Swells generated by Sebastien are expected to reach the Azores later today and tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Storm Sebastien Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21

2019-11-24 15:40:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 24 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 241440 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 1500 UTC SUN NOV 24 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 49 X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PONTA DELGADA 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Advisory Number 21

2019-11-24 15:40:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN NOV 24 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 241439 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 1500 UTC SUN NOV 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SEBASTIEN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 37.0W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 28 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 330SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 37.0W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 38.7W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 39.8N 31.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 140SE 120SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 43.8N 22.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 190SE 190SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 47.7N 14.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 250SE 200SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.4N 37.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Storm Sebastien Graphics

2019-11-24 09:48:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Nov 2019 08:48:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Nov 2019 08:48:30 GMT

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Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Discussion Number 20

2019-11-24 09:47:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Nov 24 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 240847 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Sebastien Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 500 AM AST Sun Nov 24 2019 Sebastien is on the slow boat to becoming fully extratropical. Just within the past few hours, the cyclone has taken on an appearance more resembling a subtropical cyclone, with all of its deep convection located in a band to the north of the center and it being co-located with an upper-level shortwave trough. Based on Sebastien's evolving structure, TAFB provided a subtropical classification of ST3.5. Combining this estimate with the most recent ADT and SATCON estimates, the initial intensity remains 55 kt. Since Sebastien's extratropical transition has been so drawn out, it's difficult to pinpoint exactly when the process will be complete. Phase-space diagrams from the GFS and ECMWF models indicate that the cyclone will be deep cold core within the next 6-12 hours. However, these models keep the low-level vortex separate from a second upstream upper-level trough for the next 30 hours, and they also keep deep convection going (in simulated satellite imagery) near but to the north of the center for that same amount of time. Because of deep-layer shear around 40 kt and sea surface temperatures near 20C, the official forecast continues to show extratropical transition complete by 24 hours, but that forecast should be considered with a margin of error of plus or minus 12 hours. Regardless of its status, Sebastien is forecast to only gradually lose strength over the next 48 hours and is likely to bring gusty winds and heavy rains to portions of the Azores later today and tonight. Please see products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere (IPMA) for more information. The northeastward acceleration continues, with Sebastian moving 050/29 kt. Additional acceleration is expected during the next 24 hours, with the new NHC track forecast a little faster than the previous iteration and generally a blend of the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. No forecast points are provided starting at 72 hours since by that time Sebastien is expected to have merged with another weather system southwest of Ireland and the United Kingdom. This larger complex system could bring gusty winds and heavy rains to portions of western Europe within the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 36.0N 40.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 38.5N 34.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 42.1N 26.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 25/1800Z 46.2N 17.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 26/0600Z 50.0N 11.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 27/0600Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM $$ Forecaster Berg

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