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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-09-30 22:36:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 302036 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 2100 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 30.0W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 105SE 45SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 30.0W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 29.5W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 10.6N 31.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.6N 33.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.9N 34.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.5N 36.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.4N 38.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.9N 40.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 23.6N 42.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 28.0N 42.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.9N 30.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Victor Graphics
2021-09-30 16:55:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 30 Sep 2021 14:55:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 30 Sep 2021 14:55:37 GMT
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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-09-30 16:54:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 301454 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 200 PM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021 Victor remains a sprawling tropical storm with numerous curved bands surrounding the center. The associated convection remains most organized on the storm's west side. The latest Dvorak estimates are largely unchanged and range from 35 to 45 kt. In addition, an ASCAT-B pass from around 12Z showed maximum winds in the 35-40 kt range. Based on all of this data, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt. The ASCAT data also showed that the wind field is quite broad with tropical-storm-force winds extending about 90 n mi north of the center. Victor is still moving west-northwestward, or 290 degrees, at 12 kt. The storm is forecast to continue on that same general track for another day or so as it remains on the south side of a deep-layer ridge over the subtropical eastern Atlantic. By late Friday, a mid- to upper-level low is expected to form over the central Atlantic, and that feature should erode the western portion of the ridge. As a result, Victor is expected to turn northwestward by the weekend and then northward early next week when it is forecast to move in the flow between the ridge and the low. The model tracks have converged compared to yesterday, but the ECMWF remains the slowest and westernmost solution and the HWRF is still the easternmost model. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the west of the previous one and lies close to the various consensus aids and is in fair agreement with the GFS. The storm has about another 36 hours in conducive environmental conditions of very low wind shear, a moist mid-level airmass, and warm 28-29 degree C SSTs. Therefore, intensification seems likely during that time period, but given the broad nature of the system's wind field, Victor will likely gain strength slowly during that time period. However, in a couple of days, the models show a significant increase in southwesterly shear and a progressively drier airmass. These negative factors for the storm along with slightly cooler SSTs should cause Victor to lose strength. In fact, some of the models suggest that Victor could dissipate by the end of the forecast period. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one. It should be noted that although this forecast no longer explicitly shows Victor becoming a hurricane, it could occur in a day or two before conditions become hostile. This forecast lies near the high end of the model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 9.5N 28.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 10.2N 30.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 11.1N 32.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 12.4N 34.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 13.9N 35.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 15.7N 37.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 17.9N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 23.2N 41.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 28.0N 42.4W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Victor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-09-30 16:52:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 301452 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 1500 UTC THU SEP 30 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Victor (AT5/AL202021)
2021-09-30 16:52:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...VICTOR FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 2:00 PM CVT Thu Sep 30 the center of Victor was located near 9.5, -28.9 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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