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Subtropical Storm Teresa Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-09-25 04:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 250241 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM TERESA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192021 0300 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 65.4W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 65.4W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 65.0W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 35.2N 65.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 36.2N 64.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 37.8N 64.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N 65.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Subtropical Storm Teresa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-09-25 04:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 250241 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM TERESA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192021 0300 UTC SAT SEP 25 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM TERESA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Subtropical Storm Teresa Graphics
2021-09-24 22:58:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 24 Sep 2021 20:58:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 24 Sep 2021 20:58:44 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Teresa Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-09-24 22:56:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 242056 TCDAT4 Subtropical Storm Teresa Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192021 500 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 The disturbance just north of Bermuda interacting with a mid- to upper-level low has developed a prominent band of deep convection within its eastern semicircle as well as a well-defined surface center. Additionally, the system is not displaying any significant baroclinicity (i.e., frontal boundaries), so it is not an extratropical cyclone. All of which indicates that the system has evolved into a subtropical cyclone. ASCAT-C scatterometer data from 1440Z suggested peak winds were around 40 kt, which is the basis for calling the system Subtropical Storm Teresa. The system is moving toward the northwest at 12 kt is it rounds the northern part of the mid- to upper-level low. By Saturday, Teresa should turn northward and then northeastward, as it begins to be caught up in the mid-latitude westerlies. The forecast is based upon the TVCN track consensus technique. Teresa will not be long-lived. A developing extratropical system forming off of New England should absorb Teresa between 36 and 48 hours. Until then, the subtropical storm has a small window to intensify slightly while traversing lukewarm water and encountering moderate vertical shear. If deep convection develops near the system's center, then Teresa could evolve into a tropical storm. However, it is more likely that Teresa will remain a subtropical storm until dissipation in around two days. It is worth noting that Teresa will likely be the 9th so-called "shortie" of the 2021 hurricane season -- systems that are short- lived and relatively weak. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 34.5N 64.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 35.4N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 36.3N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 37.2N 64.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Summary for Subtropical Storm Teresa (AT4/AL192021)
2021-09-24 22:52:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SUBTROPICAL STORM TERESA FORMS NORTH OF BERMUDA... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 24 the center of Teresa was located near 34.5, -64.5 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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