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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 29

2021-07-07 11:06:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 070906 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 The central convection associated with Elsa dissipated for a time earlier this morning, although the latest radar and satellite imagery shows a new band forming in the northern semicircle. This decrease was likely caused by a combination of shear and dry air entrainment, and it has caused the cyclone to weaken. Aircraft and surface observations indicate the central pressure has risen to near 1004 mb, and the initial intensity is decreased to a possibly generous 55 kt based on aircraft and Doppler radar data. After a slight jog to the left, the storm has resumed a motion of 360/12. This motion should continue for the next 12 h or so until landfall occurs across the northwestern Florida peninsula. Thereafter, a gradual turn toward the north-northeast is expected by, followed by acceleration toward the northeast as Elsa moves into the mid-latitude westerlies. The forecast guidance has shifted a little to the left since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is also nudged in that direction. The new track lies a little to the right of the various consensus models. While little change in strength is forecast before landfall, there is a chance that the new convection could cause a short-lived re-intensification. So, based on this possibility a hurricane warning remains in effect for portions of the west coast of Florida. After landfall, Elsa should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States, followed by some re-intensification as it accelerates back over the Atlantic. The system is expected to become extratropical by the time it reaches the Canadian Maritimes in 72 h. The new intensity forecast is at the upper edge of the guidance envelope and has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. Key Messages: 1. As Elsa moves across the western and northern Florida Peninsula today, heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and isolated moderate river flooding. Heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. Heavy rainfall across the Northeast and New England Thursday and Friday could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida today, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for that area. 3. Hurricane conditions are possible during the next several hours along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions of the western Florida peninsula and will continue to spread northward along the west coast of the state within the warning area through today. 4. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next day or two, tropical storm conditions are expected along much of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along the coast of the mid-Atlantic state by Thursday night or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 28.5N 83.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 30.2N 83.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 32.6N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 08/1800Z 35.3N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/0600Z 38.1N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/1800Z 41.5N 70.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 10/0600Z 45.6N 64.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/0600Z 54.0N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics

2021-07-07 10:58:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 07 Jul 2021 08:58:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 07 Jul 2021 08:58:26 GMT

Tags: graphics storm tropical elsa

Tropical Storm Elsa Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

2021-07-07 10:57:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 07 Jul 2021 08:57:01 GMT

Tags: map storm tropical surge

Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29

2021-07-07 10:56:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 07 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 070856 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0900 UTC WED JUL 07 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) X(23) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) X(22) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 3(25) X(25) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 2(30) X(30) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) X(17) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 2(19) X(19) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) X(19) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) X(20) X(20) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) X(33) X(33) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) X(23) X(23) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) X(27) X(27) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) X(19) X(19) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) X(20) X(20) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 5(21) X(21) X(21) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 29(29) 9(38) X(38) X(38) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 37(37) 7(44) X(44) X(44) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 4(44) X(44) X(44) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 38(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 38(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 40(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 9(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 10(10) 24(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 24(25) 5(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) FLORENCE SC 34 X 4( 4) 28(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 1 9(10) 20(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 15(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) GEORGETOWN SC 34 1 3( 4) 16(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) CHARLESTON SC 34 1 9(10) 15(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 2 24(26) 10(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 1 23(24) 5(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) AUGUSTA GA 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 3 40(43) 3(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) SAVANNAH GA 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 10 26(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) WAYCROSS GA 34 25 57(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) WAYCROSS GA 50 1 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MAYPORT NS FL 34 10 15(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) JACKSONVILLE 34 19 22(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) GAINESVILLE FL 34 72 3(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) GAINESVILLE FL 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) THE VILLAGES 34 19 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ORLANDO FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CEDAR KEY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CEDAR KEY FL 50 49 X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 22 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) ST MARKS FL 34 30 X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) ST MARKS FL 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Tags: number speed wind storm

Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)

2021-07-07 10:55:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...ELSA MOVING NORTHWARD ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE SPREADING INLAND ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... As of 5:00 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 the center of Elsa was located near 28.5, -83.5 with movement N at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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