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Tropical Storm Elsa Graphics
2021-07-08 16:57:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 08 Jul 2021 14:57:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 08 Jul 2021 14:57:34 GMT
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elsa
Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34
2021-07-08 16:57:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 08 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 081457 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC THU JUL 08 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 22(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 33(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 18(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 38(38) 4(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 24(24) 5(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CONCORD NH 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WORCESTER MA 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BOSTON MA 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) HYANNIS MA 34 X 3( 3) 28(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 12(12) 33(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) NANTUCKET MA 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 12(12) 19(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HARTFORD CT 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW LONDON CT 34 X 8( 8) 9(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 26(26) 12(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) MONTAUK POINT 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLIP NY 34 X 12(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X 22(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ATLANTIC CITY 34 1 15(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BALTIMORE MD 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 1 19(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 2 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WASHINGTON DC 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 2 38(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) OCEAN CITY MD 34 5 48(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 10 18(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) WALLOPS CDA 34 12 43(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) WALLOPS CDA 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 27 4(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) DANVILLE VA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 50 9(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) NORFOLK NAS 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 50 8(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) OCEANA NAS VA 34 45 9(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) ELIZABETH CTY 34 41 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) RALEIGH NC 34 22 X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ROCKY MT NC 34 54 X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) CAPE HATTERAS 34 13 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) FAYETTEVILLE 34 52 X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) CHERRY PT NC 34 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) NEW RIVER NC 34 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MOREHEAD CITY 34 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SURF CITY NC 34 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) WILMINGTON NC 34 24 X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) BALD HEAD ISL 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FLORENCE SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LITTLE RIVER 34 30 X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) MYRTLE BEACH 34 37 X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) GEORGETOWN SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Tropical Storm Elsa (AT5/AL052021)
2021-07-08 16:56:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ELSA MOVES INTO NORTH CAROLINA... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE... As of 11:00 AM EDT Thu Jul 8 the center of Elsa was located near 35.0, -79.7 with movement NE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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elsa
Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 34
2021-07-08 16:56:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 904 WTNT35 KNHC 081456 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021 ...ELSA MOVES INTO NORTH CAROLINA... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.0N 79.7W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM WSW OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, South Carolina, to Sandy Hook, New Jersey * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach and the tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island * Delaware Bay south of Slaughter Beach * Long Island from East Rockaway Inlet to the eastern tip along the south shore and from Port Jefferson Harbor eastward on the north shore * New Haven, Connecticut to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For information on wind hazards north of the Tropical Storm Warning area, please see products from your local weather office. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 35.0 North, longitude 79.7 West. Elsa is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will move over South Carolina and North Carolina today, pass near the eastern mid-Atlantic states by tonight, and move near or over the northeastern United States on Friday and Friday night. The system should move over Atlantic Canada by Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible tonight and Friday while the system moves close to the northeastern United States. Elsa is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A buoy near Sunset Beach, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (64 km/h) gusting to 58 mph (93 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the North Carolina coasts today, and along the mid-Atlantic coast by this afternoon and evening. These winds will spread northward in the warning area over the northeastern states by Friday and Friday night. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts the rest of this week: Across central and eastern North Carolina into southeastern Virginia, and from the Mid-Atlantic into New England...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches through Friday are possible, which could result in limited-to-considerable flash and urban flooding, as well as isolated minor river flooding. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa, please visit the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia through this afternoon. The threat for a tornado or two may continue tonight and Friday morning across coastal portions of the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Papin
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 34
2021-07-08 16:55:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUL 08 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 081455 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC THU JUL 08 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA...TO SANDY HOOK...NEW JERSEY * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NORTH BEACH AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC SOUTH OF COBB ISLAND * DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH * LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO THE EASTERN TIP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD ON THE NORTH SHORE * NEW HAVEN...CONNECTICUT TO MERRIMACK RIVER...MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 79.7W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 79.7W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 80.5W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 37.3N 77.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 130SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 40.6N 72.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 44.5N 67.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 49.0N 59.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 140SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 53.5N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 59.0N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.0N 79.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 08/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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