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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-09-21 22:42:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 212042 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 Beta's convective cloud structure has continued to erode since the previous advisory as cold-air stratocumulus clouds have wrapped around the entire and into the system center. Most of the cloud tops are barely reaching the freezing level, with the exception of a small convective burst that has recently developed near and to the northwest of the low-level center. The initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt and is based on data from the last Air Force Reserve reconnaissance leg that indicated peak SFMR surface winds of 40-42 kt northwest of the center and a dropsonde-measured central pressure of 999-1000 mb. The initial motion estimate 310/04 kt. Beta is expected to move onshore the central Texas coast later tonight, and then stalling along or just inland from the coast during the 12-24 hour period when the steering currents collapse due to a complete break down of a weak ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. A weak trough to the west of the cyclone is then forecast to nudge Beta east-northeastward toward the Gulf of Mexico in the 36-60 hour period, with the cyclone possibly reaching the warm Gulf waters by 48 hours. By 72 hours and beyond, the approaching mid-level trough Beta is expected to move Beta a little faster toward the northeast until the cyclone dissipates over the Lower Mississippi Valley area by day 5. The latest NHC track guidance has shifted a little farther to right or east of the previous forecast track, with most of the models now taking Beta back out over the western Gulf of Mexico by 24 hours. As a result, the new NHC official track forecast has been nudged a little farther to the right of the previous, but remains to the left or west of the NOAA-HCCA consensus model and the UKMET model. West-southwesterly wind shear of 15-20 kt is expected to affect Beta for the next 36 hours or so, followed by a gradual increase in the shear thereafter. That unfavorable flow regime, along with land interaction, should induce a slow weakening trend throughout the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast remains a little above the available model guidance through 48 hours since Beta is forecast to remain very close to or over the Gulf of Mexico where convective rain bands containing tropical-storm-force winds could possibly move onshore the central and upper Texas coastal areas. Key Messages: 1. The expected slow motion of Beta will produce a long duration rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is likely. Rainfall will also spread northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley and portions of the Southeast through the end of the week. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is possible. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of high tide through Tuesday along portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical-storm-force winds will spread westward across the Texas coast later this evening and continue into Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 28.2N 96.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 28.5N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 22/1800Z 28.7N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/0600Z 28.9N 95.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR TEXAS COAST 48H 23/1800Z 29.2N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 24/0600Z 29.7N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 24/1800Z 30.8N 91.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/1800Z 34.1N 88.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Beta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2020-09-21 22:42:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 212042 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 930W 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FORT POLK LA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) CAMERON LA 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) JASPER TX 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KOUNTZE TX 34 4 3( 7) 5(12) 1(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 3 3( 6) 6(12) 2(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) GALVESTON TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOUSTON TX 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUSTIN TX 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FREEPORT TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FREEPORT TX 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MATAGORDA TX 50 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PORT O CONNOR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORT O CONNOR 50 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ROCKPORT TX 34 31 9(40) 4(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 9 6(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) GFMX 270N 960W 34 3 4( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Beta (AT2/AL222020)
2020-09-21 22:42:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SLOW-MOVING BETA GETTING CLOSER TO THE TEXAS COAST... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL TEXAS COASTAL AREA... As of 4:00 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 the center of Beta was located near 28.2, -96.1 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Beta Public Advisory Number 17
2020-09-21 22:42:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 716 WTNT32 KNHC 212042 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 400 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 ...SLOW-MOVING BETA GETTING CLOSER TO THE TEXAS COAST... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL TEXAS COASTAL AREA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.2N 96.1W ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM SE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF MATAGORDA TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued from Baffin Bay to south of Port Aransas Texas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas, Texas to Sabine Pass, Texas including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and surface observations near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 96.1 West. Beta is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A decrease in forward speed and a sharp turn to the north and northeast are expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will continue to move toward the central coast of Texas today and will likely move inland by tonight. Beta is forecast to remain near or just offshore the coast of southeastern Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before Beta reaches the Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated once Beta moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. A Texas TCOON observing site at Port O'Connor, Texas, has recently measured a wind gust to 43 mph (69 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Aransas, TX to Sabine Pass, TX including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Sabine Pass, TX to Ocean Springs, MS including Sabine Lake, Lake Calcasieu, Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft Baffin Bay, TX to Port Aransas, TX including Corpus Christi Bay and Baffin Bay... 1-3 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later this evening in portions of the tropical storm warning area. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area later today. RAINFALL: Through Friday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week. Flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as isolated minor river flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur through Tuesday near the middle to upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast. SURF: Swells generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-09-21 22:42:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 714 WTNT22 KNHC 212042 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM BAFFIN BAY TO SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS...TEXAS TO SABINE PASS...TEXAS INCLUDING COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...AND GALVESTON BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 96.1W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 0SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 96.1W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 96.0W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 28.5N 96.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...110NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 28.7N 96.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 28.9N 95.8W...NEAR TEXAS COAST MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.2N 94.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 29.7N 93.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 30.8N 91.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 34.1N 88.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.2N 96.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 22/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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