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Tropical Storm Beta Graphics
2020-09-21 16:53:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2020 14:53:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 21 Sep 2020 14:53:05 GMT
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Tropical Storm Beta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2020-09-21 16:51:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 211451 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 1500 UTC MON SEP 21 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) X(11) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 930W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 5(10) 7(17) X(17) X(17) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FORT POLK LA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) CAMERON LA 34 3 2( 5) 3( 8) 6(14) 9(23) X(23) X(23) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) JASPER TX 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KOUNTZE TX 34 3 2( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 4(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) GALVESTON TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOUSTON TX 34 18 5(23) 7(30) 3(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUSTIN TX 34 3 8(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 4 7(11) 2(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) FREEPORT TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FREEPORT TX 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MATAGORDA TX 50 6 3( 9) 3(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PORT O CONNOR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORT O CONNOR 50 6 5(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) PORT O CONNOR 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ROCKPORT TX 34 49 7(56) 5(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) ROCKPORT TX 50 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 18 9(27) 6(33) X(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) GFMX 270N 960W 34 5 7(12) 5(17) 2(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) MCALLEN TX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HARLINGEN TX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-09-21 16:51:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 211451 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 There has been little change in Beta's overall convective structure and intensity, with thunderstorm activity pulsing near the center while the outer rain bands have changed little and keep rotating onshore the central and upper Texas coastal areas. Dry air intrusions into the inner-core region have continued to prevent Beta from strengthening by eroding the central dense overcast (CDO). The initial intensity of 45 kt is based on data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft showing peak SFMR surface winds of 40-45 kt and maximum flight-level winds of 50 kt so far, along with a dropsonde-measured central pressure of 996-997 mb. Beta now appears to be moving west-northwestward at a slightly faster forward speed, with the initial motion estimated to be 290/06 kt based on data from the aircraft and NOAA Doppler radars from Corpus Christi and Houston, Texas. The forecast discussion is the same old song as it was 24 hours ago with Beta expected to move just inland over the central Texas coastal Plain in about 12-18 hours, followed by a sharp decrease in motion, possibly resulting in Beta stalling for a few hours as steering currents collapse. A trough to the west combines with a broad ridge to the east located over the Gulf of Mexico to begin nudging Beta slowly northeastward or east-northeastward in 24-36 hours, followed by a slightly faster forward speed on days 3 and 4, which will continue until the cyclone dissipates over Mississippi by day 5. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, keeping Beta just inland or near the Texas coast through 60 hours, a scenario that is close to the various consensus models, and which lies between the more westward-and-inland ECMWF solution and the more eastward-and-overwater GFS track forecast. West-southwesterly vertical wind shear of 15-20 kt is not only expected to keep Beta's track close to the coastline, but it will also affect the cyclone's intensity along with land interaction. The closer the cyclone stays near the Gulf of Mexico, the more likely that bands of convection containing tropical-storm-force winds will continue to roll onshore the Texas coast through 36-48 hours. Given that the models over the past 24 hours have been trending toward a track closer to the coast, the NHC official intensity remains unchanged from the previous advisory, and lies a little above all of the available guidance through 48 hours. Key Messages: 1. The expected slow motion of Beta will produce a long duration rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is likely. Rainfall will also spread northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley and portions of the Southeast through the end of the week. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is possible. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of high tide through Tuesday along portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical-storm-force winds will spread westward across the Texas coast later this morning and continue into Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 27.9N 95.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 28.3N 96.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR TEXAS COAST 24H 22/1200Z 28.5N 96.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/0000Z 28.8N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/1200Z 29.1N 95.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...NEAR TEXAS COAST 60H 24/0000Z 29.7N 94.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...NEAR TEXAS COAST 72H 24/1200Z 30.8N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/1200Z 33.5N 89.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Beta (AT2/AL222020)
2020-09-21 16:51:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BETA MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARDS THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON... As of 10:00 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 the center of Beta was located near 27.9, -95.7 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Beta Public Advisory Number 16
2020-09-21 16:51:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 211451 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020 ...BETA MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARDS THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.9N 95.7W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSW OF FREEPORT TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas, Texas to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana, including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Lake Calcasieu A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Texas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 95.7 West. Beta is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A decrease in forward speed and a sharp turn to the north and northeast are expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will continue to move toward the central coast of Texas today and will likely move inland by tonight. Beta is forecast to remain close to the coast of southeastern Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday. Data from the aircraft and Doppler radars indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before Beta reaches the Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated once Beta moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. A Texas TCOON observing site at Port O'Connor, Texas, has recently measured a wind gust to 40 mph (65 km/h). A NOAA buoy located just east of Galveston, Texas, has reported a sustained wind of 39 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 43 mph (66 km/h) during the past couple of hours. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... San Luis Pass, TX to Sabine Pass, TX including Galveston Bay...3-5 ft Port Aransas, TX to San Luis Pass, TX including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...2-4 ft Sabine Pass, TX to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft Baffin Bay, TX to Port Aransas, TX including Corpus Christi Bay and Baffin Bay... 1-3 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later this morning in portions of the tropical storm warning area. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area later today. RAINFALL: Through Friday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week. Flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as isolated minor river flooding. TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur today and tonight, near the middle to upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast. SURF: Swells generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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