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Tropical Storm Wilfred Public Advisory Number 7

2020-09-20 04:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 200233 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Wilfred Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 ...WILFRED CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 40.5W ABOUT 1105 MI...1775 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1390 MI...2235 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wilfred was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 40.5 West. Wilfred is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday, followed by a slower westward motion late Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Sunday. Gradual Weakening is expected Sunday night and Monday, and Wilfred is expected to dissipate by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Advisory Number 7

2020-09-20 04:32:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 200232 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM WILFRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 40.5W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 40.5W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 39.9W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.3N 42.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.8N 45.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.2N 47.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.4N 49.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 40.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Beta Graphics

2020-09-20 01:50:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 23:50:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2020 21:33:28 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Beta (AT2/AL222020)

2020-09-20 01:50:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...BETA MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING THE STORM... As of 7:00 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 the center of Beta was located near 26.7, -92.2 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Beta Public Advisory Number 9A

2020-09-20 01:50:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 192350 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beta Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 700 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 ...BETA MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING THE STORM... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.7N 92.2W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas, Texas to High Island, Texas including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Baffin Bay, Texas to Port Aransas, Texas including Baffin Bay and Corpus Christi Bay * High Island, Texas to Cameron, Louisiana including Sabine Lake and Lake Calcasieu A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Aransas Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande * East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to Morgan City Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning may be required for portions of the Texas coast tonight. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 92.2 West. Data from this morning's Hurricane Hunter flight and the current flight indicate that Beta's center has drifted toward the northeast during the day. A westward drift is expected tonight, followed by a slow motion toward the west-northwest that should continue through late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will slowly approach the Texas coast Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Beta could be near hurricane strength as it approaches the Texas coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center, mainly in the northern semicircle. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Baffin Bay, TX to Cameron, LA including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, Calcasieu Lake, San Antonio Bay...2-4 ft Cameron, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by Sunday night. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Monday or Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the southwestern Louisiana coast as early as tonight, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area along the south Texas coast Sunday night or Monday. RAINFALL: Beta has the potential to produce a long duration rainfall event along the western Gulf Coast. Today through Tuesday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 20 inches beginning Saturday across southern Louisiana and spreading into coastal Texas on Sunday. Flash and urban flooding is likely as well as minor river flooding. Isolated moderate flooding along the middle Texas coast is possible. Additional heavy rainfall amounts across the western Gulf Coast are possible through late week as Beta is expected to move slowly near the Texas coast. SURF: Swells are increasing and reaching the coast of Texas and the Gulf Coast of Mexico, generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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