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Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-09-20 10:36:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 200836 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 500 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 It is unclear if Wilfred still exists, and if so, exactly where it is located. Although there is clear evidence of a broad elongated circulation, the formerly small center of Wilfred is either obscured by higher clouds or has dissipated. AMSR-2 microwave imagery at 0431 UTC showed only evidence of a northwest-southeast oriented trough with one or more embedded mesoscale lows. Visible imagery and the next round of ASCAT passes will hopefully provide more information about Wilfred's status later this morning. The intensity remains 35 kt based on ASCAT data from last night, but more recent Dvorak estimates are lower. Due to the uncertainty associated with Wilfred's status and location, the motion estimate is a very uncertain 295/15 kt. In general, Wilfred or its eventual remnants should continue on a west-northwestward heading today, and then could turn westward by early Monday. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance suite. Virtually no change has been made to the official intensity forecast. Wilfred will likely gradually weaken until it dissipates due to a combination of increasing wind shear and a dry environment. The exact point at which Wilfred will become a trough varies from model to model, but confidence is fairly high that Wilfred won't last much longer than another day or two. The NHC forecast carries Wilfred for 48 h based on persistence from the previous advisory, but if recent trends hold, it could dissipate as soon as later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 15.0N 42.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 15.7N 44.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 16.2N 46.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 16.5N 48.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 16.7N 50.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-09-20 10:34:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 200834 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM WILFRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILFRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Wilfred (AT3/AL232020)
2020-09-20 10:33:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...WILFRED WILTING IN THE FACE OF HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 20 the center of Wilfred was located near 15.0, -42.0 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Public Advisory Number 8
2020-09-20 10:33:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 200833 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Wilfred Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 500 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 ...WILFRED WILTING IN THE FACE OF HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 42.0W ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1285 MI...2070 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Wilfred was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 42.0 West. Wilfred is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the west with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected by tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is anticipated. Wilfred is not expected to last more than another couple of days and could dissipate as soon as later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-09-20 10:33:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 200833 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM WILFRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 42.0W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 42.0W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 41.5W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.7N 44.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.2N 46.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.5N 48.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.7N 50.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 42.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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