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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-09-20 04:55:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 200255 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EAST OF HIGH ISLAND...TEXAS TO ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE...LOUISIANA. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS...TEXAS TO ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE...LOUISIANA... INCLUDING COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...GALVESTON BAY...SABINE LAKE...AND LAKE CALCASIEU A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAFFIN BAY...TEXAS TO PORT ARANSAS...TEXAS INCLUDING BAFFIN BAY AND CORPUS CHRISTI BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 92.2W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......160NE 40SE 40SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 92.2W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 92.2W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 27.1N 93.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...140NE 50SE 40SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 27.4N 94.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 50SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 27.9N 95.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 28.4N 96.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 28.9N 96.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 29.3N 96.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 30.2N 94.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 31.4N 92.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.8N 92.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Graphics
2020-09-20 04:35:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 02:35:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 02:35:56 GMT
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-09-20 04:34:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 200234 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020 Microwave data since the previous advisory indicates that the center of Wilfred is located near the southwestern edge of the deep convection. The displacement of the center from the convection is the result of moderate westerly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity remains 35 kt, and is based on an ASCAT-B overpass from around 0000 UTC that revealed peak winds of 30-35 kt. Wilfred is headed toward an area of increasing westerly wind shear, and a drier mid-level environment. These negative factors should lead to weakening in 24 to 48 h, and the global models dissipate the cyclone within the next few days. The official forecast follows suit, but given the small size of the cyclone it could weaken and dissipate sooner than indicated below. The initial motion estimate is 295/14, a little faster than before. Wilfred is forecast to remain on a west-northwestward heading through Sunday, but should turn westward within the low-level flow by Sunday night or Monday. The latest NHC track forecast is once again similar to the previous advisory and near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 14.5N 40.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 15.3N 42.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 15.8N 45.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 16.2N 47.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 16.4N 49.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Wilfred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-09-20 04:33:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 200233 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM WILFRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILFRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Wilfred (AT3/AL232020)
2020-09-20 04:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...WILFRED CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 19 the center of Wilfred was located near 14.5, -40.5 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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