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Tropical Storm Nicholas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2021-09-13 10:49:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 130849 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 0900 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 4( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 34 4 5( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) FORT POLK LA 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) LAKE CHARLES 34 1 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) CAMERON LA 34 3 6( 9) 3(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) JASPER TX 34 1 6( 7) 7(14) 7(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) KOUNTZE TX 34 1 11(12) 9(21) 3(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 10(11) 5(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) GALVESTON TX 34 11 23(34) 3(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) GALVESTON TX 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 2 39(41) 12(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) HOUSTON TX 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AUSTIN TX 34 1 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FREEPORT TX 34 6 53(59) 2(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) FREEPORT TX 50 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 34 51 7(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) GFMX 280N 950W 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 2 17(19) 5(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) MATAGORDA TX 34 51 32(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) MATAGORDA TX 50 1 20(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) MATAGORDA TX 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PORT O CONNOR 34 66 23(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) PORT O CONNOR 50 5 40(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) PORT O CONNOR 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKPORT TX 34 46 17(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) ROCKPORT TX 50 4 16(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ROCKPORT TX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 18 13(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 1 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 270N 960W 34 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) GFMX 270N 960W 50 20 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GFMX 270N 960W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MCALLEN TX 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HARLINGEN TX 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 250N 960W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Advisory Number 5

2021-09-13 10:47:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 130847 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 0900 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS * ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...AND MATAGORDA BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TO FREEPORT TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS * BARRA EL MEZQUITAL TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS * SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS TO RUTHERFORD BEACH LOUISIANA...INCLUDING GALVESTON BAY * BAFFIN BAY AND CORPUS CHRISTI BAY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO SABINE PASS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 96.6W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 96.6W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 96.5W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 27.3N 96.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 29.2N 96.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 30.6N 95.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.5N 94.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 32.1N 93.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 32.5N 91.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 96.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Summary for Tropical Storm Nicholas (AT4/AL142021)

2021-09-13 07:45:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THAT NICHOLAS IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN... As of 1:00 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 the center of Nicholas was located near 25.1, -96.5 with movement NNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Nicholas Public Advisory Number 4A

2021-09-13 07:45:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 130545 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 100 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THAT NICHOLAS IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.1N 96.5W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas * Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Port Aransas to Freeport Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas * Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas Texas * San Luis Pass Texas to Rutherford Beach Louisiana, including Galveston Bay * Baffin Bay and Corpus Christi Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of High Island Texas to Sabine Pass A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the upper Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 96.5 West. Nicholas is moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). The storm should turn northward later today and north-northeastward on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will pass near or just offshore the coasts of northeastern Mexico and south Texas this morning, and move onshore along the coast of south or central Texas Monday afternoon or evening. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast until Nicholas reaches the northwest Gulf coast later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure has fallen to 1001 mb (29.56 inches) based on reconnaissance data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas through the middle of the week. Across the rest of coastal Texas into southwest Louisiana rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally, there is the potential for isolated minor to moderate river flooding. Over the northeastern portions of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas, rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches can be expected through today. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay... 3-5 ft San Luis Pass, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay...2-4 ft Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area in northeastern Mexico and southern Texas this morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will spread northward within the warning area through tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area as early as this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by tonight or early Tuesday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today into tonight across the middle and lower Texas coast. SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

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