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Tropical Storm Nicholas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-09-12 16:58:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 12 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 121457 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 1500 UTC SUN SEP 12 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 6(17) 2(19) 1(20) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) 1(13) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 3(15) 2(17) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 10(18) 3(21) 2(23) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 2(16) 2(18) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 14(18) 3(21) 1(22) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 13(18) 3(21) 1(22) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) 12(37) 1(38) 1(39) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) 1(11) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 18(31) 2(33) 1(34) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 13(37) 1(38) 1(39) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 20(40) 5(45) 1(46) 1(47) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) 1(13) 1(14) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 15(24) 2(26) 1(27) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MATAGORDA TX 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 27(42) 10(52) 1(53) X(53) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT O CONNOR 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 27(47) 8(55) X(55) 1(56) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) X(16) 1(17) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) 11(11) 17(28) 6(34) 1(35) X(35) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) 5(26) X(26) X(26) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 5( 5) 46(51) 11(62) 2(64) X(64) 1(65) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) 1(14) HARLINGEN TX 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 4(24) 1(25) X(25) 1(26) HARLINGEN TX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X 3( 3) 25(28) 3(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 1 49(50) 20(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) 1(71) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) LA PESCA MX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-09-12 16:57:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 12 2021 690 WTNT24 KNHC 121457 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 1500 UTC SUN SEP 12 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO PORT ARANSAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM BARRA EL MEZQUITAL NORTHWARD TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER. A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO HIGH ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TO HIGH ISLAND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS * BARRA EL MEZQUITAL TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 94.8W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 94.8W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 94.4W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.9N 95.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.1N 96.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.4N 96.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.2N 96.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 29.4N 95.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 30.3N 95.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 31.0N 94.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 32.0N 94.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 94.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Olaf Graphics
2021-09-11 01:53:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Sep 2021 23:53:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Sep 2021 21:28:48 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Olaf (EP5/EP152021)
2021-09-11 01:52:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...OLAF CONTINUES WEAKENING AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TOMORROW... As of 6:00 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 the center of Olaf was located near 24.7, -113.0 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Olaf Public Advisory Number 13A
2021-09-11 01:52:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 102352 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Olaf Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 600 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 ...OLAF CONTINUES WEAKENING AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 113.0W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.61 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Puerto San Andresito southward to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected or occurring somewhere within the tropical storm warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 113.0 West. Olaf is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected tonight and Saturday, followed by a southwestward motion beginning on Saturday night and continuing into early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will continue moving away from the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Olaf is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low tomorrow. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.61 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within portions of the tropical storm warning area, but are expected to subside during the next several hours. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across portions of southern Baja California Sur through tonight. This rainfall may trigger life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in regions of onshore winds within the warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. SURF: Swells generated by Olaf will affect portions of the coasts of Nayarit and Sinaloa through this evening, and portions of the west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Papin
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