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Tropical Storm Nicholas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-09-13 22:38:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 132038 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 2100 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BATON ROUGE LA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MORGAN CITY LA 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) LAFAYETTE LA 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) NEW IBERIA LA 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 280N 930W 34 5 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) SHREVEPORT LA 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FORT POLK LA 34 3 7(10) 5(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) LAKE CHARLES 34 5 10(15) 7(22) 2(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) CAMERON LA 34 8 11(19) 6(25) 2(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) JASPER TX 34 5 15(20) 7(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) JASPER TX 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 18 25(43) 6(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) KOUNTZE TX 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 17 21(38) 6(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 71 12(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) GALVESTON TX 50 2 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HOUSTON TX 34 58 20(78) 2(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) HOUSTON TX 50 4 17(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) HOUSTON TX 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) AUSTIN TX 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 87 5(92) X(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) FREEPORT TX 50 17 9(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) FREEPORT TX 64 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 85 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 41 20(61) 2(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MATAGORDA TX 34 92 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) MATAGORDA TX 50 55 3(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) MATAGORDA TX 64 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT O CONNOR 34 72 1(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) PORT O CONNOR 50 50 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) PORT O CONNOR 64 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKPORT TX 34 16 3(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) ROCKPORT TX 50 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 270N 960W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HARLINGEN TX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Nicholas Graphics
2021-09-13 20:00:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 13 Sep 2021 18:00:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 13 Sep 2021 15:22:33 GMT
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nicholas
Summary for Tropical Storm Nicholas (AT4/AL142021)
2021-09-13 20:00:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICHOLAS MOVING ERRATICALLY NORTHWARD JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHERN COAST OF TEXAS... ...FLASH FLOODING, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND MIDDLE TEXAS COASTS TODAY... As of 1:00 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 the center of Nicholas was located near 26.9, -96.5 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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nicholas
Tropical Storm Nicholas Public Advisory Number 6A
2021-09-13 20:00:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 131800 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 100 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 ...NICHOLAS MOVING ERRATICALLY NORTHWARD JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHERN COAST OF TEXAS... ...FLASH FLOODING, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND MIDDLE TEXAS COASTS TODAY... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.9N 96.5W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas Texas to Sabine Pass * Galveston Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Sabine Pass A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Texas * Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach Louisiana * Corpus Christi Bay A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the progress of Nicholas. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 96.5 West. Nicholas is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicholas will continue to pass just offshore of the coast of south Texas this afternoon and move onshore along the coast of central Texas later this evening. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast this afternoon and evening, and Nicholas could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the northwest Gulf coast. Weakening is anticipated on Tuesday and Wednesday while Nicholas moves over land. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. During the past few hours, NOAA buoy 42020 located southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas, reported a sustained wind of 49 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (91 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 8 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, across portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas through the middle of the week. Life-threatening, flash and urban flooding impacts are possible, especially across portions of the upper Texas Gulf Coast near Lake Jackson and Freeport, TX Across the rest of southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected. This rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Additionally, there is the potential for isolated minor to moderate river flooding. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port O'Connor to San Luis Pass TX including Matagorda Bay...3-5 ft San Luis Pass, TX to Rutherford Beach, LA including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft Baffin Bay to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft Corpus Christi Bay, Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay...2-4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay...1-3 ft Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area in southern Texas through the next few hours. These conditions will spread northward within the warning area through tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area as early as this afternoon or this evening. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon and tonight across the middle and upper Texas coast. SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions of the northwest Gulf coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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US Energy Firms Face Another Storm amid Slow Recoveries from Ida
2021-09-13 19:05:00| OGI
Nicholas is the second cyclone to threaten the U.S. Gulf Coast energy complex after Hurricane Ida wreaked havoc on still-recovering oil production and refining facilities in late August and early September.
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