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Tropical Storm RAYMOND 5-Day Track, Uncertainty Cone, Warnings (.shp)
2013-10-23 22:34:52| Tropical Depression LIDIA
GIS Data last updated Wed, 23 Oct 2013 20:34:52 GMT
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Tropical Storm RAYMOND Forecast Discussion Number 16
2013-10-23 22:34:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED OCT 23 2013 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 232034 TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013 200 PM PDT WED OCT 23 2013 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF RAYMOND HAS BECOME EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A SHRINKING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO FALL...AND THE WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 45 KT. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE...WITH A LARGE ARC CLOUD IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE PROVIDING EVIDENCE OF DRY AIR CLOSER TO THE CENTER. WHILE THE SHEAR SHOULD ABATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE GLOBAL MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME OF THAT DRIER AIR WILL SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME RESTRENGTHENING IN THE LONG- TERM...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...BUT IS A BIT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A MORE CONFIDENT 250/8. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE STORM IS STEERED BY A HIGH SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS NOW FORECAST TO DIG A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS SYNOPTIC CHANGE HAS THE EFFECT OF DELAYING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM TURNING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTH FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS COULD STILL BE REQUIRED FOR LATER NHC FORECASTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 15.0N 103.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 14.8N 105.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 14.6N 106.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 14.4N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 13.9N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 13.2N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 13.5N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 15.0N 120.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm RAYMOND Information by ATCF XML Prototype
2013-10-23 22:34:39| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at Wed, 23 Oct 2013 20:34:39 GMT. This is only a prototype and the file format may change without notice.
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Tropical Storm RAYMOND Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2013-10-23 22:33:48| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 23 2013
Summary for Tropical Storm RAYMOND (EP2/EP172013)
2013-10-23 22:33:42| Tropical Depression LIDIA
...RAYMOND STILL WEAKENING... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Oct 23 the center of RAYMOND was located near 15.0, -103.8 with movement WSW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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