je.st
news
Tag: tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2020-09-20 07:04:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 200504 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Beta, located over the western Gulf of Mexico, on Hurricane Teddy, located several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda, and on Tropical Storm Wilfred, located over the central tropical Atlantic. Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette is located a few hundred miles south of the Azores and continues to produce a few showers, well to the northeast of its center of circulation. This system is drifting southward over marginally warm waters and is expected to begin moving eastward in a couple of days. The cyclone could develop tropical or subtropical characteristics during the next day or two. For more information about marine hazards associated with this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A small low pressure system is located near a frontal boundary, just off the eastern coast of central Florida. The low is producing a small area of thunderstorms near the coast, and recent buoy and satellite-derived wind data indicate that gale-force winds are occuring in the area. The low is expected to move inland over Florida later this morning, and significant development is not anticipated. For more information on this system, please see local products and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and are available on the web at www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2 Local forecast products issued by the National Weather Service are available on the web at www.weather.gov. High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Tropical Storm Beta Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2020-09-20 05:56:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 03:56:04 GMT
Tags: map
potential
beta
storm
Tropical Storm Beta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-09-20 05:17:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 03:17:19 GMT
Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-09-20 04:59:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 200259 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020 Beta's deep convection has been waning this evening. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has found that the central pressure rose several millibars since this morning, but the plane also still measured surface winds around 50 kt from the SFMR instrument. The strongest winds appear to be located near on old frontal boundary which extends north and east of Beta's center, and in fact sustained tropical-storm-force winds are just grazing the coast of south-central Louisiana. The aircraft fixes indicated that Beta drifted north-northeastward during the day. Right now, the cyclone is embedded within weak steering currents between two areas of high pressure centered near the Bahamas and west Texas/southern New Mexico. The western high pressure area is expected to slide eastward across the Southern Plains into the southeastern U.S. through Sunday night, which should force Beta to move slowly toward the west-northwest toward the Texas coast. The center is now expected to reach the coast between 48-60 hours, at which point it is likely to recurve around the mid-level high and move slowly northeastward near or inland of the upper Texas coast on days 3 and 4. Because of Beta's drift today, the new guidance envelope has shifted a bit northward. For this forecast cycle, the NHC official forecast split the difference between the previous interpolated forecast and the HFIP Corrected Consensus guidance. This keeps the forecast to the east of the ECMWF, HCCA, and TVCN multi-model consensus during Beta's slow recurvature. The air mass behind the old front appears to have won out. Beta's circulation is embedded in a dry environment of mid-level relative humidities around 50 percent, and the air mass could actually become more stable as Beta moves closer to the Texas coast. On top of that, the moderate southwesterly shear is not expected to diminish much at all. As a result, the intensity guidance has continued to trend downward, and the new official forecast now flatlines Beta's intensity at 50 kt until landfall soon after 48 hours. This forecast still lies near the top end of the guidance envelope, closest to the SHIPS model. After 48 hours, weakening is expected assuming Beta's center remains over land, and it is now expected to become a remnant low over Louisiana by day 5. While the chances that Beta will become a hurricane continue to decrease, the Hurricane Watch for portions of the coast of Texas are being maintained out of an abundance of caution given the uncertainty in the forecast. Key Messages: 1. The expected slow motion of Beta has the potential to expand a long duration rainfall event from the Louisiana coast westward into southeast Texas on Sunday and northward into the Mid-South by mid next week. The potentially prolonged period of rainfall could cause flash, urban, and river flooding, especially where tide levels are above normal. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of high tide from Sunday through Tuesday along portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical storm force winds are expected to begin along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast overnight within the tropical storm warning area in Louisiana and will spread westward to the Texas coast Sunday through Monday. Hurricane-force winds are possible along portions of the Texas coast late Monday and Monday night, where a hurricane watch is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 26.8N 92.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 27.1N 93.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 27.4N 94.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 27.9N 95.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 28.4N 96.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 22/1200Z 28.9N 96.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 23/0000Z 29.3N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 24/0000Z 30.2N 94.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 25/0000Z 31.4N 92.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
beta
storm
Tropical Storm Beta Graphics
2020-09-20 04:57:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 02:57:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 02:57:45 GMT
Tags: graphics
beta
storm
tropical
Sites : [1386] [1387] [1388] [1389] [1390] [1391] [1392] [1393] [1394] [1395] [1396] [1397] [1398] [1399] [1400] [1401] [1402] [1403] [1404] [1405] next »