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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Discussion Number 28
2020-09-14 04:30:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 140230 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Rene Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 Rene continues to produced puffs of deep convection that are continually being sheared away by nearly 30 kt of westerly shear. These brief convective bursts have not been sufficiently organized to warrant a Dvorak classification for about 12 hours, so if the convective organization does not increase soon, Rene could become a remnant low tonight. Continued shear and a very dry mid-level environment should result in Rene's remnants dissipating by 60 hours, if not sooner. Rene's forward speed has slowed since the last advisory, with a westward drift of 270/02 the current estimate. The shallow cyclone should accelerate west-southwestward or southwestward in the low-level flow by 24 hours and continue on that general motion until dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is adjusted south of the previous one toward the new multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 27.2N 47.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 27.3N 48.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 15/0000Z 26.9N 49.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/1200Z 26.2N 50.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0000Z 25.5N 51.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Depression Rene (AT3/AL182020)
2020-09-14 04:30:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RENE FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 13 the center of Rene was located near 27.2, -47.9 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Rene Public Advisory Number 28
2020-09-14 04:30:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 140230 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 ...RENE FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.2N 47.9W ABOUT 1130 MI...1815 KM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene was located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 47.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this motion is forecast to continue tonight. A faster motion toward the west-southwest or southwest is forecast to begin Monday and continue through dissipation. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Rene is expected to become a remnant low on Monday, and dissipate by Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Depression Rene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2020-09-14 04:30:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 140230 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression Rene Forecast Advisory Number 28
2020-09-14 04:30:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 140230 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION RENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182020 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 47.9W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 47.9W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 47.8W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 27.3N 48.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 26.9N 49.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.2N 50.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 25.5N 51.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N 47.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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