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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Graphics
2020-07-24 22:38:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 24 Jul 2020 20:38:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 24 Jul 2020 20:38:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-07-24 22:37:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 242037 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Gonzalo earlier this afternoon and found it to very poorly organized. The aircraft even reported seeing multiple low-level swirls which is surprising given the small size of the cyclone. The highest flight-level winds measured by the plane were 41 kt while the highest believable SFMR values were right around 35 kt. Based on that data, Gonzalo's intensity has been lowered to 35 kt. Small systems like Gonzalo are notorious for quick changes in structure and intensity, both up and down. Therefore, despite its current downswing, it is too soon to say for sure that Gonzalo will not restrengthen to some degree before it reaches the southern Windward Islands. That said, confidence in the intensity forecast is a little higher now that we have better data to base the forecast on and it does not seem likely that Gonzalo will overcome the dry air that is currently inhibiting its development. Given the current structure of the tropical storm, the NHC intensity forecast has been lowered significantly, but still allows for some slight restrengthening during the next 24 h. The new forecast is much closer to the intensity consensus, below only the HWRF model which does not appear to have a realistic initialization. Once Gonzalo reaches the eastern Caribbean, weakening is anticipated and the cyclone is forecast to dissipate within 3 days, if not sooner. Gonzalo has sped westward all day with a motion near 270/16 kt. The guidance continues to insist that Gonzalo will gain a little latitude in the near future, and a general westward to west-northwestward motion is still forecast for the next few days. The NHC track forecast has again been shifted southward, but now lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and very near the various track consensus aids. Key Messages 1. Gonzalo is forecast to bring tropical storm conditions across portions of the southern Windward Islands Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical Storm Warnings are currently in effect for some of the islands. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of Gonzalo and follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Gonzalo is expected to produce heavy rain over portions of the southern Windward Islands. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 10.0N 55.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 10.4N 58.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 11.4N 61.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 12.2N 64.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 13.1N 67.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 13.4N 71.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Gonzalo (AT2/AL072020)
2020-07-24 22:36:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GONZALO FORECAST TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Jul 24 the center of Gonzalo was located near 10.0, -55.6 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2020-07-24 22:36:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 242036 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 2100 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT VINCENT 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRENADA 34 X 10(10) 20(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) GRENADA 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X 27(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Public Advisory Number 13
2020-07-24 22:36:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 242036 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gonzalo Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2020 ...GONZALO FORECAST TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.0N 55.6W ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... The government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Tobago and Grenada. The government of St. Lucia has canceled the Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * Tobago * Grenada and its dependencies A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within about 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 55.6 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Gonzalo will move across the southern Windward Islands Saturday afternoon or evening and over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Gonzalo's maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible before Gonzalo reaches the southern Windward Islands. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea and the system is forecast to dissipate early next week. Data from the Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web a www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning on Saturday. RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches in Barbados and the Windward Islands through Sunday night. Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in Trinidad and Tobago as well as 1 to 2 inches over northeastern Venezuela. Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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