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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 18
2021-08-20 10:59:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 200859 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 Henri's low-level center has been peaking out from under the north side of the deep convective mass, resulting from continued 20-25 kt of northerly shear. Maximum winds are still estimated to be 55 kt based on T3.5 Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Henri still has a motion toward the west-northwest, or 300/8 kt, but it is about ready to make the sharp right turn that we've been expecting. A shortwave trough currently over the central Appalachians is forecast to close off by Saturday, with Henri accelerating northward on the east side of this feature through the weekend. Some global models show Henri merging with the mid-/upper-level low as the cyclone approaches southern New England, which induces a slight bend of Henri's forecast track to the left. Nearly all track models now show Henri's center reaching the coast of southern New England, and the new NHC track forecast has been nudged westward in the direction of HCCA and the other consensus aids. After day 3, Henri is forecast to eject northeastward across the Gulf of Maine toward Atlantic Canada. The strong shear affecting Henri is forecast to begin weakening later today, and SHIPS diagnostics indicate that it could drop to less than 10 kt in about 36 hours. In addition, Henri will be traversing very warm waters for the next 48 hours before it crosses the north wall of the Gulf Stream. Therefore, strengthening is anticipated for the next 2 days, with Henri likely to become a hurricane by Saturday. After 48 hours, Henri's expected slower motion over the colder water south of New England should induce quick weakening, but it may not be quick enough to keep Henri from reaching the coast as a hurricane. Faster weakening is anticipated after Henri's center moves over land, and simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest that deep convection could dissipate by day 4, making Henri a post-tropical low at that time. Global models suggest that Henri may dissipate by day 5, but for the time being a day 5 point is being kept for continuity. Based on the new forecast, tropical-storm-force wind radii will be approaching the coast of southern New England in about 48 hours. Given the still-present uncertainties in Henri's future track and intensity and the hazards that the storm may cause, storm surge and hurricane watches are now being issued for portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast points as impacts will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Henri is forecast to be near the northeast coast of the U.S. on Sunday and Monday, and the risks of storm surge, wind, and rain impacts in portions of southern New England and eastern Long Island are increasing. Hurricane and storm surge watches are now in effect for portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. 2. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. 3. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding over portions of southern New England Sunday into Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 30.2N 73.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 31.0N 73.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 33.0N 72.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 36.1N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 39.1N 71.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 41.1N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 42.2N 71.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 24/0600Z 43.5N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 25/0600Z 45.3N 63.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Henri Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2021-08-20 10:58:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 200858 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0900 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 10(14) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 4(18) 7(25) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 8(15) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 5(18) 7(25) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 8(25) 4(29) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 9(34) 2(36) AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) AUGUSTA ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 8(42) 2(44) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) 1(13) PORTLAND ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 39(42) 7(49) 1(50) CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) X(17) CONCORD NH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 41(45) 7(52) 1(53) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) X(17) PORTSMOUTH NH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 46(52) 7(59) X(59) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 3(25) 1(26) WORCESTER MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 41(46) 8(54) X(54) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 3(19) X(19) SPRINGFIELD MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 47(54) 5(59) 1(60) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 2(25) X(25) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 45(60) 3(63) X(63) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 2(29) X(29) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 43(44) 31(75) 1(76) X(76) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 30(41) 2(43) X(43) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 1(17) X(17) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 40(72) 3(75) X(75) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 32(37) 2(39) X(39) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) X(15) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 30(39) 6(45) 1(46) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) X(14) BRIDGEPORT CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 36(45) 6(51) X(51) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 2(18) X(18) NEW HAVEN CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 40(47) 7(54) X(54) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 3(19) X(19) HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 42(56) 5(61) X(61) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 2(26) X(26) NEW LONDON CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ALBANY NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 8(35) X(35) ALBANY NY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) ALBANY NY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 7(36) X(36) POUGHKEEPSIE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) POUGHKEEPSIE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 39(41) 34(75) 2(77) X(77) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 28(37) 2(39) X(39) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 26(38) 5(43) X(43) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) ISLIP NY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 21(44) 3(47) 1(48) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) X(12) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 21(27) 4(31) X(31) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) NYC CNTRL PARK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 18(23) 5(28) X(28) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) NEWARK NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 3(19) X(19) TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 14(22) 3(25) 1(26) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) X(14) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 1(14) X(14) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 2(17) X(17) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 7(20) 2(22) X(22) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 5(18) 1(19) X(19) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 4(14) 1(15) X(15) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) NEW RIVER NC 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 18
2021-08-20 10:58:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 875 WTNT23 KNHC 200857 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0900 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET EASTWARD TO MONTAUK...THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM KINGS POINT EASTWARD TO MONTAUK...AND FROM KINGS POINT EASTWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH...MASSACHUSETTS... INCLUDING NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET EASTWARD AND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR EASTWARD. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM NEW HAVEN...CONNECTICUT... EASTWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH...MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NANTUCKET... MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO EAST ROCKAWAY INLET...WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR...AND WEST OF NEW HAVEN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO MONTAUK * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM KINGS POINT TO MONTAUK * KINGS POINT NEW YORK TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS * NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO MONTAUK * NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS * NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO EAST ROCKAWAY INLET NEW YORK * WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR NEW YORK * WEST OF NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 73.1W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 73.1W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 72.8W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 31.0N 73.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 33.0N 72.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 36.1N 71.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 100SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.1N 71.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 15SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 41.1N 71.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 42.2N 71.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 43.5N 70.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 45.3N 63.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 73.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 20/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Grace Graphics
2021-08-20 10:53:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 20 Aug 2021 08:53:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 20 Aug 2021 09:22:51 GMT
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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Discussion Number 28
2021-08-20 10:52:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 200852 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 400 AM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 Deep convection has increased near the center of Grace overnight with improved banding structure over the eastern portion of the circulation. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a peak 850-mb flight-level wind of 72 kt and SFMR winds of 58 kt during the aircraft's final pass through the northern portion of the storm prior to 06Z. Based on those observations, the initial wind speed was increased to 60 kt on the 06Z intermediate advisory, and it remains at that value for now. Grace is close to re-gaining hurricane strength, and the next reconnaissance mission should be in the storm around 1200 UTC this morning. Grace will be moving over the warm waters over the Bay of Campeche today. That, along with light to moderate vertical wind shear conditions, are expected to allow for re-intensification until landfall in mainland Mexico tonight. The updated intensity forecast brings Grace to a 75-kt hurricane in 12 hours, and the storm could be slightly stronger when it makes landfall overnight. By 24 h, the center is forecast to be inland, and Grace will likely already to have begun to weaken. Rapid weakening should occur on Saturday as Grace moves farther inland over the mountainous terrain of central Mexico, and the circulation is likely to dissipate in around 48 hours. The remnants of Grace are expected to move into the Pacific where they are likely to spawn a new tropical cyclone. The cyclone has been moving westward or 270/14 kt. A strong mid-level ridge to the north of Grace should continue to steer the cyclone westward to west-southwestward until dissipation occurs in a couple days. The new NHC track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope and is essentially unchanged from the previous advisory. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are likely along portions of eastern mainland Mexico beginning late today. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Puerto Veracruz northward to Cabo Rojo. 2. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi will lead to flash and urban flooding, along with the likelihood of mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 20.7N 93.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 20.6N 95.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 20.3N 97.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/1800Z 19.8N 99.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 22/0600Z 19.4N 102.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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