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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-20 01:43:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 192343 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Thu Aug 19 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Tropical Storm Linda, located approximately 1000 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii, is crossing over into the Central Pacific basin. Future advisories on Linda will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane center. Tropical Storm Grace, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, is forecast to move inland over mainland Mexico by early Saturday morning and dissipate over Mexico by late Saturday. However, Grace's remnants are expected to continue westward and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean off the west-central coast of Mexico early Sunday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph away from the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. && Future information on Linda can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 5 PM HST/0300 UTC, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP3 and WMO header WTPA33 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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Tropical Storm Grace Graphics
2021-08-20 01:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Aug 2021 23:41:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Aug 2021 21:28:41 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-20 01:41:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT GRACE IS A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... As of 7:00 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 the center of Grace was located near 20.7, -91.0 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 26A
2021-08-20 01:41:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 192341 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 26A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 700 PM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT GRACE IS A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 91.0W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The coast of mainland Mexico from Puerto Veracruz to Cabo Rojo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Tulum to Campeche * The coast of mainland Mexico from north of Cabo Rojo to Barra del Tordo. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 91.0 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected tonight, followed by a general westward to west-southwestward motion at a slower speed beginning tomorrow. On the forecast track, Grace is expected to move away from the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening, and continue moving across the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday. Grace is expected to make a second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico late Friday or early Saturday. Reports from NOAA and Air Force reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Intensification is likely now that the center has emerged over the Gulf of Mexico, and Grace is forecast to be a hurricane when it makes its second landfall on the mainland coast of Mexico late Friday or early Saturday. Rapid weakening is expected after Grace moves inland over central Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 995 mb (29.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within the tropical storm warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula for several more hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday or early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in mainland Mexico by late Friday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over north-central portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches are expected through Friday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding. Over central to northern Veracruz, northern Puebla and into Hidalgo...6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 18 inches are expected from Friday through Sunday. Heavy rainfall from Grace will likely result in areas of flash and urban flooding, and will also be capable of producing mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 ft above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area along the immediate coast of mainland Mexico near and to the north of where the center makes landfall by early Saturday. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of the western Caribbean today. High surf generated by Grace will begin to affect the southern Gulf of Mexico coastline on Friday and over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-20 01:38:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 192338 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Grace, located just offshore the Yucatan Peninsula in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, and on Tropical Storm Henri, located several hundred miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred, located inland over Vermont and New Hampshire. A tropical wave located in the eastern Atlantic several hundred miles to the southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This wave is expected to interact with another wave emerging off the African coast over the next day or two. Afterwards, environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for some slow development by the beginning of next week as this system moves gradually to the northwest at 5 to 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. && Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven
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