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Tropical Storm Henri Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2021-08-21 05:01:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 21 Aug 2021 03:01:57 GMT
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Tropical Storm Henri Graphics
2021-08-21 05:01:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Aug 2021 03:01:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Aug 2021 03:28:43 GMT
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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 21
2021-08-21 05:00:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 210300 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 Satellite imagery shows that Henri is becoming better organized this evening, with the low-level center becoming more embedded in the convective overcast and an increase in convective banding. There has also been an increase in the anticyclonic outflow. However, reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that this has not yet resulted in strengthening, as the maximum winds remain about 60 kt to the southeast of the elongated center and the central pressure is in the 994-996 mb range. Henri has turned northward, and the initial motion is now 010/8. A deep-layer mid-latitude trough over the Appalachians and the Ohio Valley will cut off into a closed low during the next 12-24 h, while a ridge builds northward to the east and northeast of Henri. This evolution should cause the storm to move north-northeastward for 12-24 h, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest from 24-48 h. This motion should bring the center of Henri over the mid-Atlantic states or southern New England between 36-48 h. After 48 h, the cyclone should get caught up in the southern edge of the westerlies and turn generally eastward across southern New England and the Gulf of Maine. There has been little change in the direction of the forecast guidance since the last advisory, but the guidance is faster on this cycle through 48 h. Thus, the new track forecast, which lies close to the consensus models, is faster than the previous forecast through the 48 h point. A combination of decreasing shear, improved organization, and upper-level divergence associated with the trough to the west should allow Henri to strengthen for the next 24 h or so, and the new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 75 kt. After 24 h, the center should move over cooler water, and weakening should start before landfall in the northeastern United States. However, the cyclone is still expected to be at or near hurricane intensity at landfall. After landfall, Henri should weaken quickly and become post-tropical by the 72 h time. Dissipation is forecast between 96-120 h. The new intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the intensity guidance. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast of the center of Henri since impacts will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin late Saturday night or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning has been issued. Dangerous storm surge is possible beginning late Saturday night or Sunday in western portions of Long Island and Connecticut in the Storm Surge Watch area. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin late Saturday night or Sunday in portions of Long Island and Connecticut, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Hurricane conditions are possible late Saturday night or Sunday across portions of Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts. 3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding, over portions of Long Island and New England Sunday into Monday. 4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast of the U.S. through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 32.3N 73.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 34.3N 72.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 37.7N 72.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 40.2N 72.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 41.4N 73.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 23/1200Z 42.2N 73.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 24/0000Z 42.7N 72.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 25/0000Z 43.5N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Henri Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2021-08-21 04:59:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 210259 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0300 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 3(15) X(15) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 8(17) 2(19) X(19) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) 11(27) 2(29) X(29) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CONCORD NH 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 19(32) 9(41) 1(42) X(42) CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CONCORD NH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 14(27) 9(36) 2(38) X(38) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORTSMOUTH NH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) WORCESTER MA 34 X 2( 2) 28(30) 24(54) 6(60) 1(61) X(61) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) WORCESTER MA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X 2( 2) 32(34) 29(63) 5(68) 1(69) X(69) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 16(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) SPRINGFIELD MA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BOSTON MA 34 X 2( 2) 19(21) 20(41) 7(48) 2(50) X(50) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X 3( 3) 25(28) 12(40) 6(46) 2(48) X(48) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 10(10) 40(50) 4(54) 4(58) 1(59) X(59) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 8( 8) 53(61) 10(71) 3(74) 1(75) X(75) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) 15(15) 8(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X 4( 4) 52(56) 22(78) 3(81) X(81) X(81) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) 17(17) 21(38) 3(41) X(41) X(41) BRIDGEPORT CT 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X 4( 4) 52(56) 22(78) 3(81) X(81) X(81) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) 19(19) 23(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44) NEW HAVEN CT 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) HARTFORD CT 34 X 3( 3) 43(46) 25(71) 6(77) X(77) X(77) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) 12(12) 24(36) 2(38) X(38) X(38) HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) NEW LONDON CT 34 X 4( 4) 53(57) 17(74) 2(76) 1(77) X(77) NEW LONDON CT 50 X X( X) 20(20) 18(38) 1(39) 1(40) X(40) NEW LONDON CT 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ALBANY NY 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 33(48) 8(56) X(56) X(56) ALBANY NY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) ALBANY NY 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X 3( 3) 26(29) 33(62) 6(68) X(68) X(68) POUGHKEEPSIE 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) POUGHKEEPSIE 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 12(12) 65(77) 8(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) MONTAUK POINT 50 X 1( 1) 37(38) 11(49) 2(51) X(51) X(51) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) 11(11) 7(18) X(18) 1(19) X(19) ISLIP NY 34 X 5( 5) 61(66) 15(81) 2(83) X(83) X(83) ISLIP NY 50 X X( X) 22(22) 17(39) 3(42) X(42) X(42) ISLIP NY 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X 10(10) 59(69) 12(81) 3(84) X(84) X(84) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) 20(20) 12(32) 4(36) X(36) X(36) NYC JFK AIRPRT 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X 4( 4) 41(45) 22(67) 5(72) X(72) X(72) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) NYC CNTRL PARK 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEWARK NJ 34 X 4( 4) 37(41) 21(62) 5(67) 1(68) X(68) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) NEWARK NJ 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TRENTON NJ 34 X 3( 3) 22(25) 19(44) 5(49) X(49) X(49) TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) TRENTON NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X 4( 4) 40(44) 14(58) 5(63) X(63) X(63) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) NWS EARLE NJ 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) 16(30) 7(37) X(37) X(37) ALLENTOWN PA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) 15(32) 5(37) X(37) X(37) PHILADELPHIA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 5( 5) 22(27) 10(37) 5(42) X(42) X(42) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) DOVER DE 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 6(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 2 11(13) 18(31) 4(35) 3(38) X(38) X(38) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) OCEAN CITY MD 34 2 13(15) 11(26) 4(30) 3(33) X(33) X(33) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) WALLOPS CDA 34 2 10(12) 7(19) 2(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) RICHMOND VA 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK VA 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 34 3 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) ELIZABETH CTY 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 5 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) CHERRY PT NC 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 34 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SURF CITY NC 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Henri (AT3/AL082021)
2021-08-21 04:59:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HENRI CONTINUING NORTHWARD WHILE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... As of 11:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 the center of Henri was located near 32.3, -73.5 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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